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["Table des matières"]
[]
["Méthodologie"]
["Figure 1 - Évolution des effectifs d’élèves à horizon 2035 selon trois scénarios"]
["Figure 1.1 web - Nombre de naissances et années théoriques des étapes du parcours scolaire associées"]
["Figure 1.2 web - Entrée d'une génération N à l’école et au collège au fil des années"]
["Figure 1.3 web - Variation des effectifs sur 10 ans selon les secteurs et les niveaux agrégés"]
["Figure 1.4 web - Variation annuelle des effectifs d'élèves par type de formation entre 2025 et 2035"]
["Figure 2 - Évolution des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré entre 2025 et 2035, par département, selon le scénario intermédiaiare (en %)"]
["Figure 2.1 web - Évolution des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré entre 2025 et 2035, par académie (en %)"]
["Figure 2.2 web - Evolution décennale 2025-2035 des effectifs d'élèves du second degré, par département"]
["Figure 2.3 web - Evolution décennale 2025-2035 des effectifs d'élèves du second degré, par académie"]
["Figure 2.4 web - Projections des effectifs scolaires du premier degré selon le scénario intermédiaire, par secteur et par académie"]
["Figure 2.5 web - Projections des effectifs scolaires du second degré selon le scénario intermédiaire, par académie"]
["Figure 2.6 web - Projections des effectifs scolaires du premier degré selon le scénario intermédiaire, par secteur et par département"]
["Figure 2.7 web - Projections des effectifs scolaires du second degré selon le scénario intermédiaire, par département"]
["Figure 2.8 web - Evolution annuelle 2025-2026 des effectifs d'élèves du second degré, par académie"]
["Figure 2.9 web - Evolution annuelle 2025-2026 des effectifs d'élèves du second degré, par département"]
["Figure 2.10 - Evolution  2025-2026 des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré  par académie"]
["Figure 2.11 web - Evolution  2025-2026 des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré, par département"]
["Figure 3.1 web - Projections des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré selon le scénario intermédiaire et évolution"]
["Figure 3.1a web - Projections des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré dans le secteur public selon le scénario intermédiaire et évolution"]
["Figure 3.1b web - Projections des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré dans le secteur privé sous contrat selon le scénario intermédiaire et évolution"]
["Figure 3.2 web - Projections des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré selon le scénario bas"]
["Figure 3.3 web - Projections des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré selon le scénario haut"]
["Figure 4.1 web - Projections des effectifs d'élèves du second degré entre 2026 et 2035 selon le scénario intermédiaire par niveau de formation "]
["Figure 4.2 web - Variation annuelle des effectifs selon le secteur et le niveau entre 2025 et 2035 "]

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["Méthodologie"]
[]
[null,null,"Champ et sources\n\nLes projections portent sur l’ensemble des effectifs scolarisés dans les premier et second degrés, dans les secteurs public et privé sous contrat, en France. Les élèves scolarisés dans des classes hors contrat, y compris lorsque ces classes sont rattachées à des établissements privés sous contrat, ne font pas partie du champ. Ces projections sont réalisées à partir (1) des résultats des opérations « Constat du premier degré » et « Constat du second degré » qui recensent l’ensemble des élèves inscrits dans les établissements publics et privés, y compris hors contrat, (2) des dynamiques démographiques observées et projetées sur la base d'hypothèses de fécondité afin de prédire les naissances à venir.\nBARHOUMI M., MICONNET N., SERRE P., 2026, \"Projections d’effectifs d’élèves dans les premier et second degrés à horizon 2035\", Document de travail - série études n°2026-E08\", DEPP. \nBARHOUMI M., BRUN L., SERRE P., 2025, \"Les effectifs dans le premier degré : 6,155 millions d’élèves scolarisés à la rentrée 2025\", Note d'Information, n° 25-58, DEPP.\nDIEUSAERT P., JUZDZEWSKI L., LEDUC A., MICONNET N., 2025, \"Les effectifs dans le second degré : 5,621 millions d’élèves scolarisés à la rentrée 2025\", Note d'Information, n° 25-59, DEPP\nTHELOT H.,  \"Bilan démographique 2025\", Insee Première n°2087, janvier 2026\n\nAvertissement\nLes effectifs dans ce fichier Excel ne sont pas arrondis et reflètent les calculs exacts des projections. Cependant, ces projections ne permettent pas de précision à l’unité. Pour cette raison, dans le texte et les notes de lecture, les chiffres sont arrondis à la centaine pour le niveau national et à la dizaine pour le niveau départemental ou académique.\nLes écarts, sommes et évolutions présentés sont calculés à partir des valeurs exactes et peuvent donc différer de ce que l’on obtiendrait en utilisant les chiffres arrondis. Cette méthode garantit que les écarts et variations reflètent fidèlement la réalité des données.\n\nMéthodologie\n\nLes projections portent sur un horizon de dix ans, de la rentrée 2026 à la rentrée 2035.\nLes projections sont établies au niveau national, puis déclinées aux niveaux académique et départemental, en tenant compte des dynamiques propres à chaque département. Les projections infranationales sont calées sur la projection nationale afin de garantir une cohérence d’ensemble.\nLes projections du premier degré sont produites séparément pour le secteur public et pour le secteur privé sous contrat, puis agrégées. Celles du second degré sont réalisées simultanément dans les deux secteurs à partir de la modélisation de flux entre les secteurs. \n\n        1-Projection des naissances et cadre démographique\n\nLes projections démographiques mobilisées reposent sur les données de l’Insee du bilan démographique 2025 corrigées par la Depp afin de tenir compte du sous-dénombrement des enfants aux jeunes âges observé dans le recensement de la population. Les pyramides des âges issues des bilans démographiques récents ont ainsi été redressées et vieillies à partir des données de l’état civil, afin d’obtenir des effectifs d’enfants plus proches de la population réelle.\nLes naissances observées sont connues jusqu’en 2025. A partir de la rentrée 2029, les projections d’effectifs scolaires nécessitent donc une estimation des naissances futures : les naissances de 2026 concernent les enfants atteignant l’âge théorique de 3 ans à la rentrée 2029, celles de 2027 la rentrée 2030, et ainsi de suite. \nLes naissances futures sont estimées à partir d’hypothèses d’évolution de l’indice conjoncturel de fécondité (ICF). Afin d’intégrer les tendances démographiques les plus récentes, trois scénarios ont été définis :\n-\tLe scénario intermédiaire prolonge la tendance récente de baisse de l’ICF observée depuis 2010, l’indicateur passant de 2,03 à 1,56 enfant par femme entre 2010 et 2025. Il repose sur une poursuite modérée et linéaire de cette baisse jusqu’en 2030, pour atteindre un ICF de 1,5 enfant par femme, puis sur une stabilisation de ce niveau entre 2030 et 2035.\n-\tLe scénario haut retient une hypothèse de fécondité plus élevée que le scénario inermédiaire. Il repose sur une hausse linéaire de l’ICF, passant de 1,56 à 1,6 enfant par femme entre 2025 et 2030, suivie d’un maintien de ce niveau entre 2030 et 2035. \n-\tLe scénario bas retient une hypothèse de fécondité moins élevée que le scénario intermédiaire. Il repose sur une baisse linéaire de l’ICF, passant de 1,56 à 1,4 enfant par femme entre 2025 et 2030, suivie d’un maintien de ce niveau entre 2030 et 2035. \nLes naissances nationales sont estimées à partir des taux de fécondité par âge, appliqués aux effectifs de femmes en âge de procréer. Les naissances départementales sont estimées selon les mêmes principes, en faisant évoluer les taux de fécondité départementaux de manière cohérente avec les hypothèses retenues au niveau national.\nLes projections d'effectifs scolaires dépendent directement des hypothèses formulées sur les naissances futures. Les résultats présentés ne constituent pas une prévision certaine, mais illustrent uniquement l’impact des hypothèses choisies sur les effectifs scolaires. Dans un contexte différent, par exemple avec un rythme de fécondité plus élevé ou plus faible, ou des variations régionales distinctes, les effectifs projetés seraient différents. Les trois scénarios proposés (intermédiaire, haut et bas) servent à encadrer ces incertitudes et à montrer l’ampleur possible des variations des effectifs selon les hypothèses retenues.\n     \n         2- Projection des effectifs d’élèves du premier degré\n\nL'enseignement du premier degré regroupe l'enseignement préélémentaire et élémentaire.\nLes projections d’effectifs sont réalisées :\n- séparément pour le secteur public et pour le secteur privé sous contrat ;\n- pour chaque niveau du premier degré, du préélémentaire à l’élémentaire ;\n- aux échelles : nationale, académique et départementale\nElles mobilisent deux méthodes utilisées selon le niveau de scolarité :\nPour le préélémentaire et le CP :les  ratios générationnels\n-\tUn ratio générationnel mesure l’évolution de la taille d’une génération par rapport à la génération précédente, à partir des données de naissances.\n-\tAppliqué aux effectifs scolaires, il consiste à faire évoluer les effectifs observés en fonction de la variation de la taille des générations succesives.\n-\tCette méthode prend implicitement en compte les effets des migrations et des décès, sous l'hypothèse que ces phénomènes se maintiennent à une part constante des évolutions.\nLes ratios générationnels sont calculés et appliqués séparément pour le secteur public et pour le secteur privé sous contrat.\nA partir du CE1 : les taux de passage observés\n-\tLe taux de passage observé mesure la proportion d’élèves d’un niveau donné que l’on retrouve dans le niveau supérieur à la rentrée suivante.\n-\tIl intègre simultanément les passages, les redoublements, les mobilités résidentielles et les flux entre secteurs public et privé.\nDans l'exercice de projection, les taux de passage sont supposés constants sur la période de projection et égaux aux dernières valeurs observées. Cette hypothèse revient à prolonger les comportements scolaires observés lors des dernières années disponibles. Les projections reposent ainsi sur l’idée que, sauf évolution de politique éducative ou changement marqué des pratiques scolaires, les modalités de passage, de redoublement ou de mobilité entre secteurs resteraient proches de celles constatées récemment.\nLes projections étant réalisées séparément pour le public et le privé sous contrat, les flux entre secteurs sont pris en compte de manière implicite. Les évolutions démographiques sont supposées affecter les deux secteurs dans des proportions similaires, ce qui revient à faire l’hypothèse d’un maintien de la part relative du public et du privé sous contrat à l’échelle nationale.\n\nLes ULIS et les UEEA\nLes effectifs en ULIS sont projetés à partir de l’évolution démographique des effectifs de l’élémentaire, d'une part supposée constante au sein des élèves des notifications d'orientation en ULIS prononcée par les commission des droits et de l'autonomie des personnes handicapées (CDAPH)  et d’une montée progressive du taux de couverture de ces notifications passant de 85 % en 2025 à 87 % en 2026 puis à 95 % à l’horizon 2032 avant de se stabiliser.\nLes effectifs en UEEA sont supposés évoluer selon les orientations de politiques publiques sur la base d’une augmentation annuelle de 12 dispositifs par an avec une capacité de 8 élèves par unité.\n\n        3- Projection des effectifs d’élèves du second degré\n\nLa méthodologie de projection des effectifs scolaires utilisée dans le second degré diffère de celle retenue pour le premier degré. Ce choix est lié d’une part, aux données disponibles dans les systèmes d’information, plus riches dans le second que dans le premier degré, et d’autre part, au fait qu’il n’y a pas d’incertitude liée à la fécondité pour une projection à 10 ans dans le second degré. En effet, les élèves qui entreront dans le second degré la dernière année de cet exercice de projection (en 2035) sont nés en 2024. Le système d’information du second degré permet depuis 2019 le suivi des élèves d’une année à l’autre. Ainsi, à partir d’appariements successifs entre les constats des différentes années sur la base de l'identifiant national élève, la scolarité des élèves peut être reconstituée élève par élève. Les taux de passages, de redoublements et de sorties entre les différentes formations et entre les secteurs public et privé au niveau national peuvent alors être calculés. Ces taux sont ensuite appliqués aux effectifs constatés d’une année pour simuler les transitions d’une rentrée scolaire à l’autre et ainsi obtenir la prévision de la rentrée suivante. Lorsque les taux constatés une année sont reconduits pour la prévision de l’année suivante, la prévision traduit uniquement l’effet de la démographie. En revanche, lorsque certains taux de passages, de sorties ou de redoublements sont modifiés dans les hypothèses pour tenir compte d’évolutions attendues au vu de la tendance observée ou des changements à venir de politique éducative, la prévision reflète l’impact de la variation de certains taux en plus des effets de la démographie, qui demeurent toutefois le principal facteur explicatif des évolutions prévues. Au moment de la rédaction de cette note, il n'y a pas d'information conduisant à penser que la politique éducative sera très différente dans le futur de celle de 2025. Il n'est donc pas fait pour les prochaines rentrées d'inflexions de grande ampleur des taux. Ainsi presque tous les taux constatés à la rentrée 2025 ont été reconduits pour tout l’exercice de prévision, à l’exception des taux post-3e, des sorties en cours de formation dans la voie professionnelle et du redoublement en terminale générale et technologique (se reporter au document de travail pour plus de précisions sur les inflexions de taux effectuées).\n"]

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["Figure 1 - Évolution des effectifs d’élèves à horizon 2035 selon trois scénarios"]
[null,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035]
["Constat 1D",6690446,6695679,6736220,6763717,6772038,6767208,6738570,6698884,6647742,6560542,6475549,6417077,6334103,6255574,6149447]
["Prévisions 1D : scénario bas",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,6149447,6024072,5899914,5775373,5652142,5523582,5403088,5267634,5138396,5059175,5001491]
["Prévisions 1D : scénario intermédiaire",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,6149447,6024072,5899914,5776077,5661622,5550129,5455142,5353869,5266962,5230726,5216439]
["Prévisions 1D : scénario haut",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,6149447,6024072,5899914,5776782,5671108,5576690,5507216,5440120,5395535,5402278,5431387]
["Constat 2D",5382760,5390332,5441745,5467660,5507612,5550775,5601699,5615100,5645593,5655644,5653435,5652973,5655549,5634447,5619682]
["Prévisions 2D",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,5619682,5583489,5529311,5455108,5375906,5298216,5214467,5144199,5076275,4977553,4875879]
[]
[null,"Figure 1 - Évolution des effectifs d’élèves à horizon 2035 selon trois scénarios"]
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[null,"Note : entre 2011 et 2025, le trait plein correspond à des données observées issues des constats de rentrée scolaire. A partir de 2026, les traits pointillés correspondent à des projections des effectifs d'élèves selon trois scénarios dans le premier degré (bas, intermédiaire, haut) et selon le scénario intermédiaire dans le second degré. Les scénarios du premier degré reposent sur des hypothèses démographiques différentes (voir méthodologie en ligne)."]
[null,"Lecture : à la rentrée 2025, on compte 6 149 400 élèves dans le premier degré et 5 619 700 élèves dans le second degré."]
[null,"Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
[null,"Source : DEPP, constats de rentrée et système d’information Scolarité 2011-2025 ; Insee, estimations de population ; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]

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["Figure 1.1 web - Nombre de naissances et années théoriques des étapes du parcours scolaire associées"]
["Année de naissance","Nombre de naissances  (en milliers)1","Année théorique d'entrée en pré-élémentaire","Année théorique d'entrée en primaire","Année théorique d'entrée au collège","Année théorique d'entrée au lycée","Année théorique de sortie du lycée"]
[2008,828,2011,2014,2019,2023,2026]
[2009,825,2012,2015,2020,2024,2027]
[2010,833,2013,2016,2021,2025,2028]
[2011,823,2014,2017,2022,2026,2029]
[2012,821,2015,2018,2023,2027,2030]
[2013,812,2016,2019,2024,2028,2031]
["2014 (hors Mayotte)",811,2017,2020,2025,2029,2032]
["2014 (y compris Mayotte)",819,2017,2020,2025,2029,2032]
[2015,799,2018,2021,2026,2030,2033]
[2016,784,2019,2022,2027,2031,2034]
[2017,770,2020,2023,2028,2032,2035]
[2018,759,2021,2024,2029,2033,2036]
[2019,753.4,2022,2025,2030,2034,2037]
[2020,735.2,2023,2026,2031,2035,2038]
[2021,742.1,2024,2027,2032,2036,2039]
[2022,726,2025,2028,2033,2037,2040]
[2023,677.8,2026,2029,2034,2038,2041]
[2024,661,2027,2030,2035,2039,2042]
[2025,645,2028,2031,2036,2040,2043]
["2026 (p)",643.72799999999995,2029,2032,2037,2041,2044]
["2027 (p)",642.42999999999995,2030,2033,2038,2042,2045]
["2028 (p)",641.33600000000001,2031,2034,2039,2043,2046]
["2029 (p)",640.52099999999996,2032,2035,2040,2044,2047]
["2030 (p)",639.78899999999999,2033,2036,2041,2045,2048]
["2031 (p)",643.47,2034,2037,2042,2046,2049]
["2032 (p)",647.11400000000003,2035,2038,2043,2047,2050]
["2033 (p)",650.649,2036,2039,2044,2048,2051]
["1. France (y compris Mayotte à partir de 2015)."]
["p : projection de naissances, calculs DEPP"]
["Lecture : en 2025, 645 000 naissances sont enregistrées. Les enfants nés en 2025, à l’âge théorique d’entrée dans chaque niveau, rentreront en préélémentaire à la rentrée 2028, en élémentaire à la rentrée 2031, au collège à la rentrée 2036 et au lycée à la rentrée 2040."]
["Source : Insee, statistiques de l'état civil 2008-2025; Insee, estimations de population ; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]

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["Figure 1.2 web - Entrée d'une génération N à l’école et au collège au fil des années"]
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["Note : l’entrée au lycée n’est pas représentée car, dans le second cycle, les parcours sont plus variés (redoublements, sorties et changements de voie), ce qui rend les effectifs moins directement liés à la taille des générations."]
["Lecture : la génération des enfants nés en N arrive en N+3 à l’école maternelle, en N+6 à l’école élémentaire, en N+11 au collège.\nLa baisse des naissances en 2025 aura un impact en 2028 sur les effectifs d’entrants à l’école maternelle, en 2031 à l’école élémentaire et en 2036 au collège"]
["Source : Insee, statistiques de l'état civil 2014-2025; Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]
["Lecture : La génération des enfants nés en N  arrivent, en N+3 à l’école maternelle, en N+6 à l’école élémentaire et en N+11 au collège\n"]
[]
[null,"Nombre de naissances  (en milliers)","Entrée matenelle","Entrée élémentaire","Entrée collège","Entrée lycée"]
[2014,818.56500000000005]
[2015,798.94799999999998]
[2016,783.64]
[2017,769.553,818.56500000000005]
[2018,758.59,798.94799999999998]
[2019,753.38300000000004,783.64]
[2020,735.19600000000003,769.553,818.56500000000005]
[2021,742.05200000000002,758.59,798.94799999999998]
[2022,725.99699999999996,753.38300000000004,783.64]
[2023,677.803,735.19600000000003,769.553]
[2024,661,742.05200000000002,758.59]
[2025,645,725.99699999999996,753.38300000000004,818.56500000000005]
[2026,643.72799999999995,677.803,735.19600000000003,798.94799999999998]
[2027,642.42999999999995,661,742.05200000000002,783.64]
[2028,641.33600000000001,645,725.99699999999996,769.553]
[2029,640.52099999999996,643.72799999999995,677.803,758.59,818.56500000000005]
[2030,639.78899999999999,642.42999999999995,661,753.38300000000004,798.94799999999998]
[2031,643.47,641.33600000000001,645,735.19600000000003,783.64]
[2032,647.11400000000003,640.52099999999996,643.72799999999995,742.05200000000002,769.553]
[2033,650.649,639.78899999999999,642.42999999999995,725.99699999999996,758.59]
[2034,null,643.47,641.33600000000001,677.803,753.38300000000004]
[2035,null,647.11400000000003,640.52099999999996,661,735.19600000000003]
[2036,null,650.649,639.78899999999999,645,742.05200000000002]

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["Figure 1.3 web - Variation des effectifs sur 10 ans selon les secteurs et les niveaux agrégés"]
[]
[null,null,"Type de formation","Constat 2025","Projection 2035","Variation projetée 2025-2035 \n(en effectif)","Variation projetée 2025-2035 \n(en %)","Variation moyenne annuelle 2025-2035\n(en %)"]
["Premier degré","Public","Préélémentaire",1943611,1706069,-237542,-12.2,-1.3]
[null,null,"Elémentaire",3316991,2750705,-566286,-17.100000000000001,-1.9]
[null,null,"Total",5315627,4508872,-806755,-15.2,-1.6]
[null,"Privé sous contrat","Préélémentaire",285092,250791,-34301,-12,-1.3]
[null,null,"Elémentaire",545098,453410,-91688,-16.8,-1.8]
[null,null,"Total",833820,707566,-126254,-15.1,-1.6]
[null,"Total public et privé sous contrat","Préélémentaire",2228703,1956860,-271843,-12.2,-1.3]
[null,null,"Elémentaire",3862089,3204115,-657974,-17,-1.8]
[null,null,"Total",6149447,5216439,-933008,-15.2,-1.6]
["Second degré","Public","Collège",2636789,2228368,-408421,-15.5,-1.7]
[null,null,"GT",1254794,1116514,-138280,-11,-1.2]
[null,null,"Pro",539700,494101,-45599,-8.4,-0.9]
[null,null,"Total",4431283,3838983,-592300,-13.4,-1.4]
[null,"Privé sous contrat","Collège",722505,617113,-105392,-14.6,-1.6]
[null,null,"GT",344266,309079,-35187,-10.199999999999999,-1.1000000000000001]
[null,null,"Pro",121628,110705,-10923,-9,-0.9]
[null,null,"Total",1188399,1036896,-151503,-12.7,-1.4]
[null,"Total public et privé sous contrat","Collège",3359294,2845481,-513813,-15.3,-1.7]
[null,null,"GT",1599060,1425593,-173467,-10.8,-1.2]
[null,null,"Pro",661328,604806,-56522,-8.5,-0.9]
[null,null,"Total",5619682,4875879,-743803,-13.2,-1.4]
["Lecture :  selon le scenario intermédiaire, entre 2025 et 2035, les effectifs du premier degré diminueraient de 806 800 élèves dans le secteur public. Dans le même temps, ils baisseraient de 592 300 élèves dans le second degré.",null,null,2228703,1956860,-271843,-16.2,-1.3]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat).",null,null,3862089,3204115,-657974,-14.2,-1.8]
["Source : DEPP, constat de rentrée et système d'information Scolarité 2025; Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 1.4 web","index":6,"n_rows":19,"n_cols":14,"rows_kept":19,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[16,0,16,13],[1,18,2,28],[2,1,2,2],[2,0,3,0],[2,4,2,13],[15,0,15,13],[14,0,14,13]]}
["Figure 1.4 web - Variation annuelle des effectifs d'élèves par type de formation entre 2025 et 2035"]
[]
["Formations","Constats",null,"Variation constatée","Variation annuelle projetée"]
[null,2024,2025,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035]
["Préélémentaire",2263199,2228703,-34496,-57285,-80860,-80042,-34618,-18540,-3965,-3232,-2304,2312,6692]
["Élémentaire",3934594,3862089,-72505,-68492,-44673,-43849,-79309,-92189,-90257,-97132,-83323,-38017,-20733]
["ULIS",56559,57052,493,307,1279,-42,-624,-860,-860,-1005,-1376,-628,-342]
["UEEA",1222,1603,381,96,96,96,96,96,96,96,96,96,96]
["Total premier degré",6255574,6149447,-106127,-125375,-124158,-123837,-114455,-111493,-94986,-101273,-86907,-36236,-14287]
["Collèges",3386211,3359294,-26917,-37354,-52243,-56788,-64218,-49053,-49329,-27963,-31393,-71983,-73489]
["Formations professionnelles",649725,661328,11603,5842,404,-4100,-4162,-7834,-9705,-11390,-10118,-7437,-8022]
["Formations générales et technologiques",1598511,1599060,549,-4681,-2339,-13315,-10822,-20803,-24715,-30914,-26415,-19301,-20162]
["Total second degré",5634447,5619682,-14765,-36193,-54178,-74203,-79202,-77690,-83749,-70268,-67924,-98722,-101674]
["Total effectifs",{"$f":"B9+B13","v":11890021},{"$f":"C9+C13","v":11769129},{"$f":"D9+D13","v":-120892},{"$f":"E9+E13","v":-161568},-178336,-198040,-193657,-189183,-178735,-171541,-154831,-134958,-115961]
["Lecture : selon le scénario intermédiaire, à la rentrée 2026, les effectifs diminueraient de 161 600 élèves au total dans le premier et le second degré. Ils diminueraient de 57 300 dans le préélémentaire."]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : DEPP, constats de rentrée et système d'information Scolarité 2024 et 2025; Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]
[]
["Figure 3 - Variation annuelle des effectifs d'élèves par type de formation entre 2025 et 2035"]

{"sheet":"Figure 2","index":7,"n_rows":110,"n_cols":4,"rows_kept":110,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[107,0,107,4],[109,0,109,3]]}
["Figure 2 - Évolution des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré entre 2025 et 2035, par département, selon le scénario intermédiaire (en %)"]
[]
[]
["DEPARTEMENT","Effectifs 2035","Évolution en %","Évolution en effectif"]
["AIN",62802,-6.8,-4565]
["AISNE",37162,-19.899999999999999,-9212]
["ALLIER",21027,-14,-3421]
["ALPES-DE-HTE-PROVENCE",12723,-5.0999999999999996,-682]
["HAUTES-ALPES",10163,-8.4,-928]
["ALPES-MARITIMES",87145,-12,-11847]
["ARDECHE",23531,-12.3,-3287]
["ARDENNES",16394,-23.9,-5155]
["ARIEGE",10219,-8.6,-958]
["AUBE",20867,-21,-5534]
["AUDE",23000,-22.5,-6662]
["AVEYRON",17547,-13.8,-2802]
["BOUCHES-DU-RHONE",172672,-13.9,-27813]
["CALVADOS",48727,-14.9,-8502]
["CANTAL",7796,-15.6,-1441]
["CHARENTE",22226,-16.2,-4285]
["CHARENTE-MARITIME",40828,-14.2,-6774]
["CHER",19369,-16.7,-3894]
["CORREZE",15646,-7.4,-1250]
["COTE D'OR",36470,-15,-6428]
["COTES D'ARMOR",38276,-20.7,-10005]
["CREUSE",5768,-20,-1442]
["DORDOGNE",23966,-15.3,-4331]
["DOUBS",42847,-11.3,-5488]
["DROME",40235,-14,-6569]
["EURE",44927,-19.5,-10857]
["EURE-ET-LOIR",32078,-20.7,-8400]
["FINISTERE",60732,-17.2,-12585]
["CORSE-DU-SUD",9580,-16.600000000000001,-1909]
["HAUTE-CORSE",11033,-11.6,-1441]
["GARD",56268,-16,-10735]
["HAUTE-GARONNE",114123,-11.5,-14849]
["GERS",11292,-16.7,-2266]
["GIRONDE",124940,-13,-18660]
["HERAULT",90402,-14.8,-15754]
["ILLE-ET-VILAINE",94869,-8.1999999999999993,-8469]
["INDRE",12782,-16.399999999999999,-2499]
["INDRE-ET-LOIRE",44982,-14.8,-7814]
["ISERE",98596,-17.2,-20435]
["JURA",17373,-15.2,-3107]
["LANDES",29561,-10.4,-3455]
["LOIR-ET-CHER",22636,-13.6,-3570]
["LOIRE",58918,-16.7,-11774]
["HAUTE-LOIRE",16316,-12.2,-2262]
["LOIRE-ATLANTIQUE",126351,-8.9,-12416]
["LOIRET",54810,-16.399999999999999,-10759]
["LOT",10210,-10.9,-1256]
["LOT-ET-GARONNE",21222,-19.100000000000001,-4997]
["LOZERE",4687,-16.100000000000001,-894]
["MAINE-ET-LOIRE",65822,-13.1,-9886]
["MANCHE",32897,-16.7,-6574]
["MARNE",40505,-17.3,-8505]
["HAUTE-MARNE",10654,-15.7,-1983]
["MAYENNE",23373,-12.5,-3333]
["MEURTHE-ET-MOSELLE",44544,-24.5,-14480]
["MEUSE",10058,-27.4,-3787]
["MORBIHAN",57472,-9.9,-6304]
["MOSELLE",70984,-19.5,-17169]
["NIEVRE",11552,-16.2,-2228]
["NORD",199072,-20.9,-52594]
["OISE",65806,-19.399999999999999,-15802]
["ORNE",18663,-11.5,-2421]
["PAS-DE-CALAIS",106963,-20.3,-27093]
["PUY-DE-DOME",43986,-18.2,-9784]
["PYRENEES-ATLANTIQUES",49031,-9.3000000000000007,-5033]
["HAUTES-PYRENEES",14313,-13.7,-2271]
["PYRENEES-ORIENTALES",34910,-14.4,-5867]
["BAS-RHIN",80663,-18,-17717]
["HAUT-RHIN",54127,-18.3,-12142]
["RHONE",147855,-19.5,-35908]
["HAUTE-SAONE",14682,-19.7,-3611]
["SAONE-ET-LOIRE",35413,-17.8,-7666]
["SARTHE",43061,-13.3,-6602]
["SAVOIE",31021,-16.600000000000001,-6195]
["HAUTE SAVOIE",80663,-5.3,-4544]
["PARIS",96013,-29.3,-39892]
["SEINE MARITIME",93006,-19.2,-22078]
["SEINE-ET-MARNE",146590,-8.9,-14293]
["YVELINES",143270,-7.4,-11482]
["DEUX-SEVRES",24127,-17.399999999999999,-5094]
["SOMME",39791,-16,-7579]
["TARN",26379,-13.8,-4228]
["TARN-ET-GARONNE",19732,-15,-3497]
["VAR",82639,-11.2,-10447]
["VAUCLUSE",43299,-19.5,-10489]
["VENDEE",48731,-14.4,-8165]
["VIENNE",26654,-22.3,-7656]
["HAUTE-VIENNE",22519,-19.5,-5446]
["VOSGES",20935,-22.7,-6138]
["YONNE",21621,-19.600000000000001,-5271]
["TERRITOIRE DE BELFORT",9782,-16.899999999999999,-1991]
["ESSONNE",134734,-11.6,-17666]
["HAUTS-DE-SEINE",129327,-13.1,-19422]
["SEINE-SAINT-DENIS",166310,-13,-24831]
["VAL-DE-MARNE",116745,-16.2,-22540]
["VAL-D'OISE",133005,-13.5,-20839]
["GUADELOUPE",33000,-16.600000000000001,-6554]
["MARTINIQUE",23008,-23,-6873]
["GUYANE",42137,-16.5,-8330]
["LA REUNION",96615,-13.7,-15322]
["MAYOTTE",62285,-4.5,-2949]
["France",5216439,-15.2,-933008]
[]
["Lecture : selon le scénario intermédiaire, entre 2025 et 2035, la diminution des effectifs du département de l’Ain serait comprise entre - 11,5 % et – 4,5 % dans le premier degré."]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : constat de rentrée 2025; Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP en 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 2.1 web","index":8,"n_rows":38,"n_cols":4,"rows_kept":38,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["Figure 2.1 web - Évolution des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré entre 2025 et 2035, par académie (en %)"]
[]
["ACADEMIE","Effectifs 2035","Évolution en %","Évolution en effectif"]
["PARIS",96013,-29.3,-39892]
["AIX-MARSEILLE",238857,-14.3,-39912]
["BESANÇON",84685,-14.4,-14196]
["BORDEAUX",248720,-12.8,-36476]
["CLERMONT-FERRAND",89125,-16,-16908]
["DIJON",105056,-17,-21593]
["GRENOBLE",274046,-13,-41030]
["LILLE",306035,-20.7,-79687]
["LYON",269575,-16.2,-52247]
["MONTPELLIER",209267,-16,-39912]
["NANCY-METZ",146522,-22.1,-41573]
["POITIERS",113834,-17.3,-23810]
["RENNES",251349,-13,-37363]
["STRASBOURG",134790,-18.100000000000001,-29859]
["TOULOUSE",223815,-12.5,-32127]
["NANTES",307339,-11.6,-40401]
["ORLEANS-TOURS",186658,-16.5,-36935]
["REIMS",88420,-19.3,-21177]
["AMIENS",142759,-18.600000000000001,-32593]
["LIMOGES",43933,-15.6,-8138]
["NICE",169784,-11.6,-22294]
["CRETEIL",429644,-12.5,-61665]
["VERSAILLES",540336,-11.4,-69409]
["CORSE",20612,-14,-3351]
["NORMANDIE",238221,-17.5,-50431]
["LA REUNION",96615,-13.7,-15322]
["MARTINIQUE",23008,-23,-6873]
["GUADELOUPE",33000,-16.600000000000001,-6554]
["GUYANE",42137,-16.5,-8330]
["MAYOTTE",62285,-4.5,-2949]
["France",5216439,-15.2,-933008]
[]
["Lecture : selon le scénario intermédiaire, en 2035, la diminution des effectifs de l'académie Paris serait comprise entre - 29,3 et - 19,5 % par rapport à 2025 dans le premier degré."]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : constat de rentrée 2025 ; Insee, estimations de population ; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP ; projections calculs DEPP en 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 2.2 web","index":9,"n_rows":110,"n_cols":4,"rows_kept":110,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[107,0,107,4],[108,0,108,4]]}
["Figure 2.2 web - Evolution décennale 2025-2035 des effectifs d'élèves du second degré, par département"]
[]
[]
["DEPARTEMENT","Effectifs 2035","Évolution en %","Évolution en effectif"]
["AIN",51614,-9.4,-5327]
["AISNE",35700,-19.3,-8549]
["ALLIER",19425,-16.600000000000001,-3873]
["ALPES-DE-HTE-PROVENCE",11197,-11.9,-1519]
["HAUTES-ALPES",8943,-15.8,-1675]
["ALPES-MARITIMES",82101,-9.4,-8524]
["ARDECHE",21600,-16.8,-4357]
["ARDENNES",14913,-23.4,-4547]
["ARIEGE",9365,-15.1,-1666]
["AUBE",20176,-18.2,-4503]
["AUDE",22349,-17.2,-4628]
["AVEYRON",15428,-18.3,-3459]
["BOUCHES-DU-RHONE",164555,-8.5,-15251]
["CALVADOS",45756,-16.7,-9154]
["CANTAL",7120,-18.399999999999999,-1610]
["CHARENTE",20437,-17,-4195]
["CHARENTE-MARITIME",37853,-18.2,-8429]
["CHER",17444,-15.2,-3116]
["CORREZE",13889,-15.4,-2536]
["COTE D'OR",33033,-16.2,-6398]
["COTES D'ARMOR",36430,-18.899999999999999,-8490]
["CREUSE",5348,-19.3,-1283]
["DORDOGNE",21691,-17.399999999999999,-4581]
["DOUBS",37770,-13.4,-5836]
["DROME",38682,-10.4,-4467]
["EURE",40070,-19.899999999999999,-9952]
["EURE-ET-LOIR",30090,-17.399999999999999,-6328]
["FINISTERE",57472,-16.899999999999999,-11708]
["CORSE-DU-SUD",9386,-10.3,-1080]
["HAUTE-CORSE",10303,-12.5,-1478]
["GARD",52266,-14.4,-8796]
["HAUTE-GARONNE",105664,-9.6,-11201]
["GERS",10726,-17.8,-2316]
["GIRONDE",118763,-11.1,-14803]
["HERAULT",85673,-11.2,-10793]
["ILLE-ET-VILAINE",84274,-12.2,-11740]
["INDRE",11669,-17.5,-2482]
["INDRE-ET-LOIRE",41447,-13.7,-6571]
["ISERE",92082,-16.600000000000001,-18346]
["JURA",15636,-18.5,-3540]
["LANDES",25538,-15.7,-4767]
["LOIR-ET-CHER",20111,-17.2,-4181]
["LOIRE",54370,-15.5,-9962]
["HAUTE-LOIRE",13934,-17,-2845]
["LOIRE-ATLANTIQUE",110120,-11.4,-14157]
["LOIRET",54186,-11.2,-6807]
["LOT",9124,-17.7,-1959]
["LOT-ET-GARONNE",20415,-15.4,-3726]
["LOZERE",4843,-17.899999999999999,-1053]
["MAINE-ET-LOIRE",56814,-16.600000000000001,-11292]
["MANCHE",29272,-16.8,-5914]
["MARNE",39743,-14.8,-6925]
["HAUTE-MARNE",9276,-23.2,-2804]
["MAYENNE",20030,-17.8,-4335]
["MEURTHE-ET-MOSELLE",47001,-17.899999999999999,-10257]
["MEUSE",9531,-25,-3180]
["MORBIHAN",48469,-18.399999999999999,-10945]
["MOSELLE",70294,-15.5,-12854]
["NIEVRE",11326,-16.899999999999999,-2310]
["NORD",189270,-18.600000000000001,-43242]
["OISE",63878,-12.7,-9313]
["ORNE",15784,-17.3,-3310]
["PAS-DE-CALAIS",97484,-21.4,-26536]
["PUY-DE-DOME",42306,-14.8,-7324]
["PYRENEES-ATLANTIQUES",46591,-13.4,-7216]
["HAUTES-PYRENEES",14360,-13.8,-2296]
["PYRENEES-ORIENTALES",34336,-13.4,-5307]
["BAS-RHIN",79525,-11.8,-10659]
["HAUT-RHIN",52449,-14.7,-9068]
["RHONE",141679,-15.5,-26077]
["HAUTE-SAONE",13050,-21.7,-3609]
["SAONE-ET-LOIRE",33095,-17.7,-7126]
["SARTHE",38467,-16.399999999999999,-7570]
["SAVOIE",29662,-14.7,-5094]
["HAUTE SAVOIE",67255,-5.7,-4047]
["PARIS",123570,-18.399999999999999,-27775]
["SEINE MARITIME",92568,-14.1,-15160]
["SEINE-ET-MARNE",137692,-4.4000000000000004,-6344]
["YVELINES",130638,-7.8,-11059]
["DEUX-SEVRES",21319,-22.8,-6281]
["SOMME",37168,-17.600000000000001,-7960]
["TARN",24747,-17.3,-5184]
["TARN-ET-GARONNE",17665,-18,-3888]
["VAR",76562,-7.1,-5814]
["VAUCLUSE",42399,-16.3,-8250]
["VENDEE",43625,-20.5,-11271]
["VIENNE",27097,-18.3,-6052]
["HAUTE-VIENNE",22149,-16.5,-4375]
["VOSGES",20732,-20.3,-5270]
["YONNE",20044,-17.600000000000001,-4289]
["TERRITOIRE DE BELFORT",9564,-21.1,-2558]
["ESSONNE",126009,-4.2,-5548]
["HAUTS-DE-SEINE",113646,-12,-15436]
["SEINE-SAINT-DENIS",146870,-6.1,-9521]
["VAL-DE-MARNE",106581,-9,-10528]
["VAL-D'OISE",125565,-5.5,-7357]
["GUADELOUPE",32040,-16.5,-6315]
["MARTINIQUE",22918,-21.3,-6212]
["GUYANE",40673,5.3,2057]
["LA REUNION",89271,-9.5,-9319]
["MAYOTTE",52830,6.2,3071]
["France",4875871,-13.2,-743811]
[]
["Lecture :En 2035, la diminution des effectifs du département de Paris serait comprise entre - 19,8 et - 16,0 % par rapport à 2025 dans le second degré. "]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : DEPP, constat de rentrée et système d'information Scolarité 2025; Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 2.3 web","index":10,"n_rows":38,"n_cols":4,"rows_kept":38,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[35,0,35,4]]}
["Figure 2.3 web - Evolution décennale 2025-2035 des effectifs d'élèves du second degré, par académie"]
[]
["ACADEMIE","Effectifs 2035","Évolution en %","Évolution en effectif"]
["PARIS",123570,-18.399999999999999,-27775]
["AIX-MARSEILLE",227094,-10.5,-26695]
["BESANÇON",76020,-17,-15543]
["BORDEAUX",232998,-13.1,-35093]
["CLERMONT-FERRAND",82785,-15.9,-15652]
["DIJON",97498,-17.100000000000001,-20123]
["GRENOBLE",249281,-12.7,-36311]
["LILLE",286754,-19.600000000000001,-69778]
["LYON",247663,-14.3,-41366]
["MONTPELLIER",199467,-13.3,-30577]
["NANCY-METZ",147558,-17.600000000000001,-31561]
["POITIERS",106706,-19,-24957]
["RENNES",226645,-15.9,-42883]
["STRASBOURG",131974,-13,-19727]
["TOULOUSE",207079,-13.4,-31969]
["NANTES",269056,-15.3,-48625]
["ORLEANS-TOURS",174947,-14.4,-29485]
["REIMS",84108,-18.3,-18779]
["AMIENS",136746,-15.9,-25822]
["LIMOGES",41386,-16.5,-8194]
["NICE",158663,-8.3000000000000007,-14338]
["CRETEIL",391143,-6.3,-26393]
["VERSAILLES",495858,-7.4,-39400]
["CORSE",19689,-11.5,-2558]
["NORMANDIE",223450,-16.3,-43490]
["LA REUNION",89271,-9.5,-9319]
["MARTINIQUE",22918,-21.3,-6212]
["GUADELOUPE",32040,-16.5,-6315]
["GUYANE",40673,5.3,2057]
["MAYOTTE",52830,6.2,3071]
["France",4875871,-13.2,-743811]
[]
["Lecture : en 2035, la diminution des effectifs de l'académie Paris serait comprise entre - 19,8 et -16,0  % par rapport à 2025 dans le second degré."]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : DEPP, constat de rentrée et système d'information Scolarité 2025; Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 2.4 web","index":11,"n_rows":69,"n_cols":15,"rows_kept":69,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[2,2,2,11],[68,0,68,3],[36,13,44,18],[47,13,47,16],[4,0,4,11],[35,0,35,11]]}
["Figure 2.4 web - Projections des effectifs scolaires du premier degré selon le scénario intermédiaire, par secteur et par académie"]
[]
[null,"Constat","Projections",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Tableau sur la typologie des acédémies selon les rythmes d'évolution entre 2025 et 2035"]
["ACADEMIE",2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035]
["Secteur public",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"ACADEMIE","Typologie"]
["PARIS",101071,97447,93801,90145,86724,83156,79999,76902,74556,73050,71696,null,"PARIS","Changement de rythme dès 2032"]
["AIX-MARSEILLE",248228,243404,238761,233744,229136,224800,221169,217307,213970,212785,212203,null,"AIX-MARSEILLE","Baisse importante, régulière et sans rupture"]
["BESANÇON",89555,87803,85768,84173,82607,81213,80089,78789,77680,76818,76478,null,"BESANÇON","Baisse modérée, régulière et sans rupture"]
["BORDEAUX",250805,245941,241434,236884,233118,229565,226229,222248,218974,218214,218386,null,"BORDEAUX","Changement de rythme dès 2033"]
["CLERMONT-FERRAND",89612,87452,85534,83652,81875,80162,78839,77141,75875,75367,74948,null,"CLERMONT-FERRAND","Baisse importante, régulière et sans rupture"]
["DIJON",115088,112368,109485,106932,104522,102271,100452,98498,96676,95824,95552,null,"DIJON","Baisse modérée, régulière et sans rupture"]
["GRENOBLE",276549,270651,265530,260579,256205,252052,248360,244320,240898,240290,240128,null,"GRENOBLE","Changement de rythme dès 2032"]
["LILLE",313435,304431,296268,287893,280638,273501,267123,260641,255113,251413,248612,null,"LILLE","Changement de rythme dès 2032"]
["LYON",268348,261398,254846,248931,243219,237965,233801,229777,226680,225902,225626,null,"LYON","Changement de rythme dès 2032"]
["MONTPELLIER",221424,216891,212104,207346,203114,199145,195377,191211,187505,186110,185903,null,"MONTPELLIER","Changement de rythme dès 2033"]
["NANCY-METZ",176018,170642,165929,160826,156251,151714,147874,143800,140399,138519,136739,null,"NANCY-METZ","Baisse importante, régulière et sans rupture"]
["POITIERS",121436,118535,115631,113135,110864,108561,106654,104325,102174,101102,100332,null,"POITIERS","Baisse importante, régulière et sans rupture"]
["RENNES",176939,173751,170692,167715,164935,162269,160026,157473,155183,154416,154186,null,"RENNES","Baisse modérée, régulière et sans rupture"]
["STRASBOURG",154727,151181,147605,143924,140644,137317,134276,131467,129031,127609,126581,null,"STRASBOURG","Changement de rythme dès 2032"]
["TOULOUSE",225286,220546,216267,212456,209231,206089,203214,199852,197141,196851,197231,null,"TOULOUSE","Changement de rythme dès 2033"]
["NANTES",225561,221236,216946,213068,210065,207235,204835,201764,199428,199108,199762,null,"NANTES","Changement de rythme dès 2033"]
["ORLEANS-TOURS",202213,198189,194043,189903,185981,182153,178789,175129,171685,169973,168781,null,"ORLEANS-TOURS","Changement de rythme dès 2032"]
["REIMS",98708,96113,93504,91729,89723,87521,85583,83476,81539,80421,79660,null,"REIMS","Baisse importante, régulière et sans rupture"]
["AMIENS",159147,155629,152288,148834,146010,142810,139813,136695,133423,131334,129690,null,"AMIENS","Baisse importante, régulière et sans rupture"]
["LIMOGES",48694,47821,46834,45992,45188,44261,43374,42648,41765,41307,41154,null,"LIMOGES","Baisse importante, régulière et sans rupture"]
["NICE",176315,173249,169866,166766,163946,161387,159464,157234,155120,154849,155588,null,"NICE","Changement de rythme dès 2033"]
["CRETEIL",462983,455540,448240,438624,429789,421315,414733,409605,405535,404617,405063,null,"CRETEIL","Changement de rythme dès 2033"]
["VERSAILLES",562593,553337,544223,534179,524862,516222,509601,503049,498028,497272,498194,null,"VERSAILLES","Changement de rythme dès 2033"]
["CORSE",22783,22452,21954,21500,21119,20765,20468,20112,19753,19643,19634,null,"CORSE","Baisse modérée, régulière et sans rupture"]
["NORMANDIE",252162,246064,240445,235097,229862,224858,220549,215867,211495,209269,207608,null,"NORMANDIE","Baisse importante, régulière et sans rupture"]
["LA REUNION",102076,100751,98842,97246,95816,94438,93017,91261,89648,88297,87845,null,"LA REUNION","Baisse modérée, régulière et sans rupture"]
["MARTINIQUE",26634,26109,25465,24875,24326,23533,22879,22112,21418,20825,20557,null,"MARTINIQUE","Baisse importante, régulière et sans rupture"]
["GUADELOUPE",34791,34150,33190,32910,32480,31678,30756,30101,29535,29090,29018,null,"GUADELOUPE","Baisse modérée, régulière et sans rupture"]
["GUYANE",47212,47643,47387,46314,45121,43875,42705,41448,40512,39645,39433,null,"GUYANE","Autre profil"]
["MAYOTTE",65234,66048,65821,64887,64047,63321,63259,62224,61305,61085,62285,null,"MAYOTTE","Autre profil"]
["Secteur privé sous contrat"]
["PARIS",34834,33682,32529,31185,29850,28572,27411,26256,25388,24833,24317,null,"Note : Le tableau met en évidence quatre grands groupes d’évolution des effectifs pour chaque académie sur la période 2025-2035, selon la typologie suivante :\n1°) Le premier groupe d’académies connaîtrait un changement de rythme dès 2032 avec un ralentissement de la baisse de ses effectifs à partir de 2032 \n2°) Le second groupe d’académies présenterait un changement de rythme dès 2033 : les effectifs diminueraient entre 2025 et 2033, ralentiraient moins vite, se stabiliseraient ou repartiraient à la hausse en 2034 et 2035.\n3°) Le troisième groupe d’académies verrait ses effectifs diminuer de façon importante, régulière et sans rupture.\n4°) Le quatrième groupe d’académies observerait une diminution modérée, régulière de ses effectifs, et sans rupture.\n5°) Mayotte et la Guyane auraient un profil d'évolution différent avec des variations volatiles entre 2025 et 2035"]
["AIX-MARSEILLE",30541,30233,29893,29458,29002,28427,27937,27413,26939,26756,26654]
["BESANÇON",9326,9188,9055,8956,8882,8731,8612,8469,8342,8239,8207]
["BORDEAUX",34391,33832,33233,32799,32295,31839,31385,30855,30394,30289,30334]
["CLERMONT-FERRAND",16421,16038,15818,15607,15389,15077,14844,14528,14309,14232,14177]
["DIJON",11561,11252,10986,10668,10418,10193,10016,9815,9615,9528,9503]
["GRENOBLE",38527,37851,37262,36771,36166,35583,35088,34505,33994,33909,33918]
["LILLE",72287,70418,68543,66762,65127,63415,61891,60341,59005,58090,57423]
["LYON",53474,51952,50584,49334,48044,46890,45974,45088,44369,44116,43948]
["MONTPELLIER",27755,27179,26603,26109,25562,25068,24608,24075,23585,23396,23363,null,"Lecture : L’académie de Paris connaîtrait un point d’inflexion en 2032, le rythme de la baisse importante des effectifs entre 2025 et 2032 ralentissant nettement entre 2033 et 2035."]
["NANCY-METZ",12077,11896,11738,11537,11320,10981,10692,10364,10082,9931,9783,null,"Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["POITIERS",16208,15900,15528,15241,15010,14683,14419,14089,13782,13615,13502,null,"Sources : DEPP, constat de rentrée 2025, Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]
["RENNES",111773,109365,107106,105223,103373,101797,100487,98971,97596,97182,97163]
["STRASBOURG",9922,9782,9650,9532,9277,9040,8813,8600,8401,8290,8209]
["TOULOUSE",30656,30055,29429,28912,28408,27980,27574,27069,26636,26550,26585]
["NANTES",122179,119520,117228,114948,113061,111515,110187,108517,107262,107124,107577]
["ORLEANS-TOURS",21380,21006,20547,20202,19769,19367,19008,18601,18215,18015,17877]
["REIMS",10889,10634,10362,10150,9919,9668,9449,9199,8962,8842,8759]
["AMIENS",16205,15843,15435,15059,14659,14359,14084,13788,13447,13234,13069]
["LIMOGES",3377,3284,3171,3108,3037,2977,2923,2879,2818,2786,2778]
["NICE",15763,15614,15439,15247,15074,14815,14620,14389,14162,14126,14197]
["CRETEIL",28326,28013,27637,27079,26541,25956,25474,25085,24751,24628,24581]
["VERSAILLES",47152,46798,46340,45670,44913,44106,43465,42803,42290,42157,42142]
["CORSE",1180,1165,1144,1111,1064,1045,1029,1010,989,981,978]
["NORMANDIE",36490,35773,35193,34635,33934,33233,32626,31925,31233,30872,30614]
["LA REUNION",9861,9852,9771,9706,9595,9455,9312,9129,8957,8812,8769]
["MARTINIQUE",3247,3186,3118,3043,2931,2828,2745,2647,2557,2481,2451]
["GUADELOUPE",4763,4734,4629,4601,4496,4374,4236,4139,4055,3988,3983]
["GUYANE",3255,3261,3243,3166,3087,3004,2928,2846,2782,2721,2704]
["MAYOTTE",0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
["Lecture : selon le scénario intermédiaire, à la rentrée 2026, il y aurait 97 450 élèves scolarisés dans l'académie de Paris dans le secteur public du premier degré."]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : DEPP, constat de rentrée 2025, Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 2.5 web","index":12,"n_rows":69,"n_cols":12,"rows_kept":69,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[2,2,2,11],[4,0,4,11],[35,0,35,11],[68,0,68,3]]}
["Figure 2.5 web - Projections des effectifs scolaires du second degré selon le scénario intermédiaire, par académie"]
[]
[null,"Constat","Projections"]
["ACADEMIE",2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035]
["Secteur public"]
["PARIS",95932,93890,91896,89645,87647,86107,84455,82684,80719,78174,75888]
["AIX-MARSEILLE",200201,199310,197686,195751,193592,191169,188291,186007,183770,180253,176728]
["BESANÇON",76676,75724,74613,73188,71856,70442,68908,67592,66383,65182,63733]
["BORDEAUX",215750,213863,210884,207468,203861,200488,197298,195227,193226,189795,186206]
["CLERMONT-FERRAND",77144,76279,75054,73694,72428,71112,69634,68603,67445,65883,64451]
["DIJON",99164,97940,96557,94817,93008,91119,89116,87415,86031,84063,81947]
["GRENOBLE",221998,220747,218646,215638,212526,209309,206134,203497,200953,196750,192775]
["LILLE",260477,257753,253407,248198,242101,236223,229883,224301,219006,213500,208197]
["LYON",208312,208480,207669,205131,202485,199474,196068,192717,189090,184252,180103]
["MONTPELLIER",189465,187827,185817,183233,180232,177282,174438,172539,170634,167308,163595]
["NANCY-METZ",150877,149047,146748,144355,141463,138639,135373,132509,129541,125785,122306]
["POITIERS",110074,108383,106479,103677,100835,98380,95897,94141,92736,90647,88824]
["RENNES",154915,152766,150234,147312,144378,141590,138913,136786,135198,132860,130574]
["STRASBOURG",128997,128589,127725,126272,124468,122968,121146,119100,117043,114370,111693]
["TOULOUSE",196426,194921,192885,190060,186675,183361,180540,178396,176379,172891,169468]
["NANTES",185653,183649,180885,177671,173986,170525,167170,165043,163130,160242,157115]
["ORLEANS-TOURS",173540,171634,169295,166548,163845,160935,157986,155631,153680,150552,147545]
["REIMS",83613,82525,81314,79201,77344,75747,73915,72536,71285,69547,67927]
["AMIENS",135161,134042,132447,130368,127522,124942,122579,120395,118707,116322,113852]
["LIMOGES",44132,43393,42499,41565,40639,39875,39287,38653,38289,37676,36940]
["NICE",147185,147315,146960,145949,144920,143545,141819,140531,139357,136999,134167]
["CRETEIL",363292,365456,366108,365612,364421,362799,360147,355988,351826,346151,340187]
["VERSAILLES",441468,442508,442379,439695,436900,433717,429578,425479,421046,414502,408050]
["CORSE",20913,20685,20457,20312,20037,19738,19507,19332,19213,18827,18391]
["NORMANDIE",215135,213083,209909,205702,201463,197295,193140,189933,186977,182872,179002]
["LA REUNION",90025,89161,88382,87676,86758,85672,84716,83998,83198,82334,80798]
["MARTINIQUE",24888,24079,23301,22562,21968,21574,21123,20788,20532,20253,19685]
["GUADELOUPE",34374,33418,32633,31532,30712,30294,30022,29633,29273,28775,28205]
["GUYANE",35737,35601,35640,36216,36818,37389,37885,38437,38596,38594,37793]
["MAYOTTE",49759,49920,50208,50682,51061,51495,51440,52410,53315,53670,52830]
["Secteur privé sous-contrat"]
["PARIS",55413,55195,54792,54419,54014,53517,52779,51866,50681,49152,47682]
["AIX-MARSEILLE",53588,53766,53775,53626,53455,53246,52820,52432,52029,51233,50366]
["BESANÇON",14887,14523,14212,13865,13524,13304,13070,12890,12735,12546,12287]
["BORDEAUX",52341,52138,51787,51082,50431,49798,49202,48818,48385,47601,46792]
["CLERMONT-FERRAND",21293,21192,20898,20529,20210,19948,19629,19435,19144,18728,18334]
["DIJON",18457,18311,18093,17837,17541,17217,16868,16540,16290,15939,15551]
["GRENOBLE",63594,63226,62629,61943,61274,60606,59874,59297,58685,57590,56506]
["LILLE",96055,95159,93936,92140,89992,88135,86103,84251,82468,80490,78557]
["LYON",80717,79997,79024,77651,76459,75222,73781,72465,71019,69139,67560]
["MONTPELLIER",40579,40538,40266,39797,39275,38696,38134,37751,37367,36660,35872]
["NANCY-METZ",28242,28515,28515,28302,28036,27806,27396,27000,26539,25881,25252]
["POITIERS",21589,21245,20916,20453,19961,19578,19149,18870,18634,18239,17882]
["RENNES",114613,113118,111125,108785,106597,104451,102364,100832,99658,97854,96071]
["STRASBOURG",22704,22707,22577,22394,22228,22055,21829,21535,21190,20734,20281]
["TOULOUSE",42622,42391,42032,41510,40964,40388,39873,39508,39130,38389,37611]
["NANTES",132028,130616,128739,126443,124043,121618,119253,117772,116383,114315,111941]
["ORLEANS-TOURS",30892,30782,30694,30302,29945,29576,29121,28786,28472,27931,27402]
["REIMS",19274,19154,18966,18577,18180,17898,17544,17235,16964,16558,16181]
["AMIENS",27407,27095,26745,26285,25764,25267,24745,24258,23895,23397,22894]
["LIMOGES",5448,5339,5234,5112,4990,4875,4782,4681,4625,4538,4446]
["NICE",25816,25967,25997,25937,25853,25788,25614,25498,25383,24990,24496]
["CRETEIL",54244,54447,54420,54393,54280,54147,53840,53265,52688,51856,50956]
["VERSAILLES",93790,93851,93771,93536,93305,92981,92242,91512,90653,89219,87808]
["CORSE",1334,1350,1389,1397,1416,1423,1403,1381,1363,1331,1298]
["NORMANDIE",51805,51359,50599,49757,48962,48225,47432,46831,46245,45337,44448]
["LA REUNION",8565,8660,8769,8746,8705,8695,8681,8685,8665,8619,8473]
["MARTINIQUE",4242,4021,3827,3703,3631,3566,3502,3460,3410,3350,3233]
["GUADELOUPE",3981,3994,4064,4020,4040,4070,4086,4081,4036,3961,3835]
["GUYANE",2879,2840,2797,2835,2881,2914,2942,2963,2956,2945,2880]
["MAYOTTE",0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
["Lecture : selon le scénario intermédiaire, à la rentrée 2026, il y aurait 93 890 élèves scolarisés dans l'académie de Paris dans le secteur public du second degré."]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : DEPP, constat de rentrée scolaire et système d'information scolarité 2025; Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 2.6 web","index":13,"n_rows":211,"n_cols":12,"rows_kept":211,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[4,0,4,11],[106,0,106,11],[2,2,2,11],[210,0,210,3]]}
["Figure 2.6 web - Projections des effectifs scolaires du premier degré selon le scénario intermédiaire, par secteur et par département"]
[]
[null,"Constat","Projections"]
["DEPARTEMENT",2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035]
["Secteur public"]
["AIN",60758,60063,59101,58473,57751,57178,56790,56250,55918,56277,56875]
["AISNE",42441,41514,40542,39551,38768,37918,37060,36154,35194,34442,33998]
["ALLIER",22321,21869,21456,21073,20759,20376,20153,19767,19501,19354,19191]
["ALPES-DE-HTE-PROVENCE",12719,12543,12377,12256,12192,12142,12147,12030,11992,12060,12148]
["HAUTES-ALPES",10065,9813,9637,9514,9385,9307,9298,9170,9078,9128,9162]
["ALPES-MARITIMES",89538,87613,85385,83527,81845,80545,79635,78633,77853,77979,78672]
["ARDECHE",20265,19642,19218,18847,18591,18230,18058,17791,17619,17643,17749]
["ARDENNES",19715,19146,18554,18116,17618,17050,16549,16071,15594,15294,15008]
["ARIEGE",10226,10000,9757,9721,9651,9548,9457,9369,9281,9301,9409]
["AUBE",23804,23189,22458,22027,21552,21022,20476,19980,19426,19018,18821]
["AUDE",27357,26599,25855,25024,24398,23789,23139,22470,21855,21392,21158]
["AVEYRON",15178,14852,14512,14258,14060,13838,13626,13337,13179,13166,13204]
["BOUCHES-DU-RHONE",177855,174760,171608,167916,164493,161351,158747,156146,153859,152979,152602]
["CALVADOS",49055,48073,47079,46194,45373,44546,43781,42833,42204,41856,41777]
["CANTAL",8137,7928,7761,7591,7388,7271,7143,7005,6862,6824,6780]
["CHARENTE",23820,23327,22771,22342,21996,21615,21271,20868,20419,20129,19990]
["CHARENTE-MARITIME",44175,43287,42236,41421,40732,40001,39472,38693,38022,37847,37710]
["CHER",21474,21009,20574,20168,19746,19279,18954,18567,18154,18037,17916]
["CORREZE",15588,15382,15044,14939,14797,14678,14543,14411,14266,14313,14447]
["COTE D'OR",38182,37263,36354,35367,34624,33902,33466,32987,32477,32418,32570]
["COTES D'ARMOR",33360,32610,31959,31166,30286,29417,28796,28129,27459,27077,26667]
["CREUSE",6960,6788,6611,6417,6238,6082,5910,5770,5648,5586,5559]
["DORDOGNE",26373,25797,25257,24688,24282,23849,23455,22867,22519,22431,22370]
["DOUBS",43600,43057,42215,41606,40963,40507,40112,39528,39088,38586,38445]
["DROME",40268,39587,39021,38377,37880,37301,36634,35849,35018,34697,34492]
["EURE",51310,49845,48325,47138,45890,44829,43825,42894,42128,41645,41304]
["EURE-ET-LOIR",36306,35336,34284,33362,32503,31650,30990,30222,29449,29018,28667]
["FINISTERE",45798,44940,44022,43166,42397,41611,40778,39875,38908,38399,38094]
["CORSE-DU-SUD",10749,10587,10301,10081,9852,9660,9500,9321,9103,8999,8953]
["HAUTE-CORSE",12034,11865,11654,11419,11267,11106,10968,10790,10650,10644,10680]
["GARD",59005,57688,56283,54976,53834,52743,51760,50722,49733,49439,49370]
["HAUTE-GARONNE",117010,114598,112744,110508,108670,107083,105610,104098,103026,103125,103289]
["GERS",11745,11438,11191,11031,10840,10670,10472,10166,9899,9850,9801]
["GIRONDE",130204,127821,125546,123008,120967,119213,117482,115334,113662,113223,113221]
["HERAULT",94508,92698,90680,88782,86981,85294,83716,82061,80575,80330,80640]
["ILLE-ET-VILAINE",64789,63796,62840,61943,61136,60471,59916,59291,58985,59092,59392]
["INDRE",14213,13903,13635,13362,13109,12826,12582,12259,12057,11932,11863]
["INDRE-ET-LOIRE",46945,46032,45085,44222,43382,42673,41911,41044,40424,40048,39873]
["ISERE",107599,104995,102471,99798,97762,95734,93808,91950,90296,89637,89063]
["JURA",18351,18014,17467,17159,16886,16543,16280,16023,15778,15615,15609]
["LANDES",30418,29757,29260,28844,28518,28120,27819,27461,27021,27093,27294]
["LOIR-ET-CHER",23458,23176,22735,22374,22065,21746,21421,21070,20682,20509,20468]
["LOIRE",55736,54307,53162,52061,50803,49586,48657,47824,47006,46723,46509]
["HAUTE-LOIRE",12301,11976,11723,11427,11204,11029,10905,10729,10658,10654,10663]
["LOIRE-ATLANTIQUE",91730,90179,88516,87186,86229,85288,84466,83353,82709,82959,83617]
["LOIRET",59817,58734,57730,56414,55177,53979,52931,51968,50920,50428,49993]
["LOT",10478,10293,10077,10005,9851,9722,9605,9442,9350,9364,9404]
["LOT-ET-GARONNE",23460,23055,22608,22076,21574,21016,20533,20062,19577,19219,19046]
["LOZERE",3831,3789,3683,3648,3577,3511,3483,3390,3308,3239,3215]
["MAINE-ET-LOIRE",46487,45598,44775,43863,43182,42584,42074,41363,40816,40657,40644]
["MANCHE",31569,30775,30253,29699,29232,28628,28127,27490,26873,26605,26333]
["MARNE",43301,42199,41193,40475,39618,38664,37901,36964,36198,35945,35731]
["HAUTE-MARNE",11888,11579,11299,11111,10936,10785,10657,10461,10322,10164,10100]
["MAYENNE",17478,17096,16764,16414,16076,15864,15682,15495,15277,15180,15118]
["MEURTHE-ET-MOSELLE",54585,52815,51132,49296,47743,46248,44879,43509,42295,41643,41049]
["MEUSE",12808,12392,11982,11555,11175,10807,10464,10047,9714,9459,9282]
["MORBIHAN",32992,32406,31870,31439,31116,30769,30537,30178,29831,29847,30032]
["MOSELLE",83635,81222,79194,76963,74988,72973,71412,69789,68491,67860,67208]
["NIEVRE",12773,12502,12172,11921,11572,11344,11162,10928,10728,10626,10600]
["NORD",196686,190860,185553,180186,175389,170693,166570,162523,159172,156912,155357]
["OISE",76456,74711,73160,71480,70046,68358,66779,65145,63571,62642,61777]
["ORNE",16646,16309,15928,15712,15463,15303,15143,14997,14748,14567,14467]
["PAS-DE-CALAIS",116749,113570,110715,107707,105249,102808,100553,98118,95940,94501,93255]
["PUY-DE-DOME",46853,45678,44594,43560,42525,41487,40638,39640,38854,38536,38314]
["PYRENEES-ATLANTIQUES",40350,39510,38763,38268,37777,37368,36940,36524,36195,36248,36455]
["HAUTES-PYRENEES",14325,14138,13931,13671,13510,13309,13034,12841,12603,12433,12380]
["PYRENEES-ORIENTALES",36723,36117,35602,34916,34325,33808,33279,32566,32033,31710,31520]
["BAS-RHIN",92991,91241,89094,86871,84826,82742,80835,79042,77557,76659,76067]
["HAUT-RHIN",61736,59940,58512,57053,55818,54575,53441,52425,51474,50949,50514]
["RHONE",151854,147027,142584,138397,134666,131200,128354,125703,123756,122902,122242]
["HAUTE-SAONE",17036,16468,16043,15626,15238,14877,14594,14254,13971,13799,13617]
["SAONE-ET-LOIRE",39651,38810,37807,36961,36160,35423,34757,33957,33324,32931,32777]
["SARTHE",41790,40987,40243,39505,38979,38349,37858,37228,36622,36335,36218]
["SAVOIE",33801,32881,32217,31434,30630,30020,29503,28889,28362,28285,28140]
["HAUTE SAVOIE",74616,73547,72603,72123,71342,70767,70356,69840,69603,70028,70684]
["PARIS",101071,97447,93801,90145,86724,83156,79999,76902,74556,73050,71696]
["SEINE MARITIME",103582,101062,98860,96355,93904,91552,89674,87653,85542,84595,83727]
["SEINE-ET-MARNE",153618,152105,150713,148700,146766,144711,143109,141415,140039,139758,140013]
["YVELINES",140888,138879,136808,135045,133650,132144,131092,129952,129198,129411,130123]
["DEUX-SEVRES",23465,22792,22115,21560,21010,20549,20245,19843,19562,19386,19342]
["SOMME",40250,39403,38586,37802,37196,36535,35974,35396,34657,34250,33915]
["TARN",25709,25132,24437,24028,23742,23352,23083,22700,22283,22187,22319]
["TARN-ET-GARONNE",20615,20096,19618,19233,18906,18567,18326,17900,17521,17425,17425]
["VAR",86777,85636,84481,83239,82102,80842,79829,78601,77267,76870,76916]
["VAUCLUSE",47589,46287,45139,44058,43066,42000,40977,39962,39042,38618,38290]
["VENDEE",28076,27376,26647,26099,25599,25150,24756,24325,24004,23976,24165]
["VIENNE",29976,29130,28508,27812,27125,26395,25666,24921,24169,23741,23290]
["HAUTE-VIENNE",26146,25651,25180,24636,24153,23501,22921,22467,21851,21408,21148]
["VOSGES",24990,24213,23620,23013,22344,21687,21119,20455,19898,19557,19200]
["YONNE",24482,23793,23152,22683,22165,21601,21067,20626,20147,19849,19606]
["TERRITOIRE DE BELFORT",10568,10263,10043,9783,9519,9286,9103,8983,8844,8817,8807]
["ESSONNE",144710,142710,141207,138737,136337,134080,132064,130127,128451,128027,128019]
["HAUTS-DE-SEINE",130303,127331,124592,121719,118998,116732,115088,113651,112875,112933,113133]
["SEINE-SAINT-DENIS",181230,178027,174781,170543,166559,163020,160263,158750,157452,157271,157699]
["VAL-DE-MARNE",128135,125407,122746,119381,116464,113584,111362,109440,108044,107587,107351]
["VAL-D'OISE",146692,144417,141615,138677,135876,133266,131357,129319,127504,126901,126920]
["GUADELOUPE",34791,34150,33190,32910,32480,31678,30756,30101,29535,29090,29018]
["MARTINIQUE",26634,26109,25465,24875,24326,23533,22879,22112,21418,20825,20557]
["GUYANE",47212,47643,47387,46314,45121,43875,42705,41448,40512,39645,39433]
["LA REUNION",102076,100751,98842,97246,95816,94438,93017,91261,89648,88297,87845]
["MAYOTTE",65234,66048,65821,64887,64047,63321,63259,62224,61305,61085,62285]
["Secteur privé sous-contrat"]
["AIN",6609,6408,6255,6127,6043,5979,5937,5875,5832,5866,5927]
["AISNE",3933,3853,3761,3681,3612,3535,3457,3372,3279,3205,3163]
["ALLIER",2127,2093,2021,1993,1994,1955,1934,1895,1868,1853,1836]
["ALPES-DE-HTE-PROVENCE",686,653,616,588,577,575,575,570,569,572,575]
["HAUTES-ALPES",1026,1013,992,1016,1029,1019,1018,1002,991,997,1000]
["ALPES-MARITIMES",9454,9317,9147,9003,8885,8728,8619,8496,8395,8400,8473]
["ARDECHE",6553,6361,6254,6165,6055,5940,5884,5799,5743,5748,5781]
["ARDENNES",1834,1781,1741,1689,1633,1580,1534,1489,1443,1414,1386]
["ARIEGE",951,898,873,843,834,825,816,809,800,800,809]
["AUBE",2597,2534,2453,2406,2354,2295,2235,2180,2114,2066,2045]
["AUDE",2305,2268,2222,2206,2129,2076,2020,1961,1906,1863,1842]
["AVEYRON",5171,4987,4797,4719,4629,4558,4489,4395,4340,4332,4343]
["BOUCHES-DU-RHONE",22630,22494,22343,22044,21747,21324,20968,20602,20268,20135,20070]
["CALVADOS",8174,7989,7853,7765,7592,7452,7319,7151,7035,6967,6951]
["CANTAL",1100,1080,1107,1115,1114,1095,1075,1053,1030,1024,1016]
["CHARENTE",2691,2638,2571,2528,2476,2432,2393,2344,2288,2252,2235]
["CHARENTE-MARITIME",3427,3368,3369,3349,3395,3335,3291,3219,3153,3134,3118]
["CHER",1789,1733,1650,1620,1603,1564,1538,1507,1473,1463,1453]
["CORREZE",1308,1277,1242,1229,1233,1221,1209,1199,1185,1188,1199]
["COTE D'OR",4716,4585,4441,4291,4164,4077,4026,3964,3893,3883,3900]
["COTES D'ARMOR",14921,14513,14138,13651,13165,12789,12523,12241,11952,11784,11609]
["CREUSE",250,248,247,247,237,231,224,218,213,210,209]
["DORDOGNE",1924,1878,1823,1765,1737,1706,1677,1634,1608,1601,1596]
["DOUBS",4735,4740,4743,4724,4705,4652,4608,4538,4484,4419,4402]
["DROME",6536,6485,6461,6414,6331,6237,6123,5986,5835,5778,5743]
["EURE",4474,4374,4260,4172,4058,3962,3869,3781,3705,3657,3624]
["EURE-ET-LOIR",4172,4181,4099,4010,3891,3789,3710,3614,3513,3457,3412]
["FINISTERE",27519,26884,26321,25798,25202,24728,24233,23702,23127,22820,22638]
["CORSE-DU-SUD",740,732,724,705,692,677,666,653,637,629,626]
["HAUTE-CORSE",440,433,421,406,372,367,363,357,352,351,352]
["GARD",7998,7890,7749,7665,7550,7397,7257,7105,6957,6911,6898]
["HAUTE-GARONNE",11962,11877,11778,11623,11490,11319,11147,10966,10829,10829,10835]
["GERS",1813,1772,1747,1724,1656,1632,1602,1552,1509,1500,1492]
["GIRONDE",13396,13199,12987,12819,12627,12441,12247,11997,11794,11730,11719]
["HERAULT",11648,11367,11095,10789,10536,10331,10140,9939,9753,9724,9761]
["ILLE-ET-VILAINE",38549,37999,37372,37000,36569,36167,35831,35451,35255,35304,35477]
["INDRE",1068,1061,1042,1041,1020,998,979,951,935,924,918]
["INDRE-ET-LOIRE",5851,5797,5701,5690,5588,5500,5401,5281,5193,5137,5110]
["ISERE",11432,11174,10955,10710,10507,10289,10080,9874,9683,9603,9533]
["JURA",2129,2053,1976,1953,1917,1875,1844,1814,1784,1763,1764]
["LANDES",2598,2520,2450,2429,2374,2342,2318,2289,2247,2251,2267]
["LOIR-ET-CHER",2748,2599,2491,2402,2330,2296,2264,2228,2189,2172,2168]
["LOIRE",14956,14558,14200,13862,13569,13243,12998,12776,12551,12470,12409]
["HAUTE-LOIRE",6277,6134,6071,6036,5960,5863,5795,5697,5656,5649,5652]
["LOIRE-ATLANTIQUE",47037,46235,45445,44653,44101,43620,43201,42625,42282,42400,42734]
["LOIRET",5752,5636,5563,5439,5337,5219,5116,5020,4913,4862,4817]
["LOT",988,954,906,879,846,833,823,810,802,803,806]
["LOT-ET-GARONNE",2759,2740,2651,2571,2468,2406,2353,2301,2243,2198,2176]
["LOZERE",1750,1700,1659,1638,1642,1612,1596,1556,1517,1485,1472]
["MAINE-ET-LOIRE",29221,28526,27943,27278,26761,26388,26071,25634,25293,25188,25179]
["MANCHE",7902,7728,7558,7430,7327,7176,7051,6882,6713,6639,6564]
["MARNE",5709,5613,5505,5424,5332,5199,5094,4955,4839,4803,4773]
["HAUTE-MARNE",749,707,663,630,601,594,586,575,567,558,555]
["MAYENNE",9228,9109,9008,8919,8783,8670,8572,8471,8349,8291,8255]
["MEURTHE-ET-MOSELLE",4439,4369,4279,4171,4088,3961,3844,3722,3609,3550,3495]
["MEUSE",1037,1005,1005,969,934,904,876,841,813,791,776]
["MORBIHAN",30784,29969,29275,28774,28437,28113,27899,27576,27262,27274,27439]
["MOSELLE",4518,4437,4382,4336,4264,4141,4050,3945,3858,3820,3776]
["NIEVRE",1007,1021,1037,1038,1048,1030,1015,990,967,955,952]
["NORD",54980,53621,52215,50876,49608,48257,47067,45882,44880,44188,43715]
["OISE",5152,5032,4893,4733,4591,4483,4381,4270,4158,4092,4029]
["ORNE",4438,4429,4427,4450,4491,4441,4396,4355,4278,4224,4197]
["PAS-DE-CALAIS",17307,16797,16328,15886,15519,15158,14824,14459,14125,13902,13708]
["PUY-DE-DOME",6917,6732,6618,6464,6321,6165,6039,5883,5756,5707,5672]
["PYRENEES-ATLANTIQUES",13714,13495,13322,13216,13088,12944,12790,12634,12502,12509,12576]
["HAUTES-PYRENEES",2259,2237,2178,2151,2125,2095,2050,2019,1976,1943,1932]
["PYRENEES-ORIENTALES",4054,3954,3878,3811,3705,3652,3595,3513,3453,3414,3390]
["BAS-RHIN",5389,5355,5319,5306,5219,5086,4954,4824,4713,4644,4596]
["HAUT-RHIN",4533,4427,4331,4226,4058,3954,3859,3775,3688,3646,3613]
["RHONE",31909,30986,30129,29345,28432,27668,27039,26438,25985,25780,25612]
["HAUTE-SAONE",1257,1231,1212,1190,1198,1169,1146,1118,1094,1081,1066]
["SAONE-ET-LOIRE",3428,3275,3157,3010,2916,2856,2802,2736,2683,2649,2636]
["SARTHE",7873,7677,7528,7457,7391,7266,7171,7048,6927,6867,6843]
["SAVOIE",3415,3363,3260,3246,3149,3085,3031,2966,2907,2897,2881]
["HAUTE SAVOIE",10591,10468,10332,10236,10125,10032,9969,9879,9826,9882,9979]
["PARIS",34834,33682,32529,31185,29850,28572,27411,26256,25388,24833,24317]
["SEINE MARITIME",11502,11252,11095,10819,10466,10202,9991,9756,9500,9386,9279]
["SEINE-ET-MARNE",7265,7190,7147,7055,6960,6860,6779,6686,6603,6576,6576]
["YVELINES",13864,13889,13850,13809,13690,13514,13384,13227,13105,13097,13148]
["DEUX-SEVRES",5756,5676,5438,5330,5209,5093,5016,4916,4843,4797,4785]
["SOMME",7120,6957,6781,6644,6456,6341,6246,6147,6010,5937,5877]
["TARN",4898,4734,4576,4435,4318,4250,4205,4137,4058,4037,4061]
["TARN-ET-GARONNE",2614,2596,2573,2537,2511,2470,2442,2380,2322,2307,2307]
["VAR",6309,6296,6291,6244,6189,6087,6002,5892,5767,5726,5724]
["VAUCLUSE",6199,6073,5942,5810,5649,5510,5376,5239,5112,5053,5009]
["VENDEE",28820,27973,27305,26641,26026,25569,25172,24740,24410,24377,24567]
["VIENNE",4334,4218,4150,4034,3929,3823,3720,3611,3498,3432,3364]
["HAUTE-VIENNE",1819,1759,1683,1632,1567,1525,1489,1462,1420,1388,1370]
["VOSGES",2083,2085,2072,2061,2034,1974,1922,1857,1802,1770,1736]
["YONNE",2410,2372,2351,2328,2290,2229,2173,2125,2072,2040,2015]
["TERRITOIRE DE BELFORT",1205,1164,1124,1089,1063,1035,1013,999,981,977,975]
["ESSONNE",7690,7596,7517,7355,7243,7124,7008,6890,6777,6736,6715]
["HAUTS-DE-SEINE",18446,18261,18048,17760,17375,16999,16706,16433,16266,16227,16194]
["SEINE-SAINT-DENIS",9911,9839,9671,9461,9261,9045,8860,8757,8653,8615,8611]
["VAL-DE-MARNE",11150,10984,10820,10563,10320,10051,9835,9642,9495,9437,9394]
["VAL-D'OISE",7152,7052,6926,6746,6604,6469,6367,6253,6143,6096,6085]
["GUADELOUPE",4763,4734,4629,4601,4496,4374,4236,4139,4055,3988,3983]
["MARTINIQUE",3247,3186,3118,3043,2931,2828,2745,2647,2557,2481,2451]
["GUYANE",3255,3261,3243,3166,3087,3004,2928,2846,2782,2721,2704]
["LA REUNION",9861,9852,9771,9706,9595,9455,9312,9129,8957,8812,8769]
["MAYOTTE",0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
["Lecture : selon le scénario intermédiaire, à la rentrée 2026, il y aurait 60 060 élèves scolarisés dans le département de l'Ain dans le secteur public du premier degré."]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : DEPP, constat de rentrée 2025, Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 2.7 web","index":14,"n_rows":211,"n_cols":12,"rows_kept":211,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[2,2,2,11],[4,0,4,11],[106,0,106,11],[210,0,210,4]]}
["Figure 2.7 web - Projections des effectifs scolaires du second degré selon le scénario intermédiaire, par département"]
[]
[null,"Constat","Projections"]
["DEPARTEMENT",2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035]
["Secteur public"]
["AIN",47451,47259,47202,46717,46358,45934,45436,45194,44923,44120,43326]
["AISNE",38253,37629,36789,35994,34956,34060,33219,32477,31984,31445,30661]
["ALLIER",20552,20306,19993,19571,19175,18800,18346,18075,17792,17420,17145]
["ALPES-DE-HTE-PROVENCE",12017,11957,11930,11864,11683,11471,11265,11192,11093,10912,10735]
["HAUTES-ALPES",9576,9431,9243,9039,8916,8714,8494,8424,8333,8146,8023]
["ALPES-MARITIMES",75590,75802,75929,75528,75172,74393,73329,72431,71444,69888,68118]
["ARDECHE",16632,16500,16142,15794,15384,15086,14759,14527,14272,13949,13611]
["ARDENNES",16710,16289,15935,15389,14923,14533,14106,13749,13475,13073,12770]
["ARIEGE",9729,9602,9481,9249,9051,8923,8803,8721,8625,8455,8272]
["AUBE",19909,19617,19312,18740,18259,17826,17448,17123,16857,16507,16093]
["AUDE",23824,23488,23049,22610,22029,21449,20981,20608,20234,19852,19337]
["AVEYRON",12020,11759,11558,11338,11078,10837,10667,10557,10405,10144,9887]
["BOUCHES-DU-RHONE",138503,138328,137584,136619,135557,134259,132507,130995,129524,127249,124850]
["CALVADOS",42300,41689,40879,39914,38988,38204,37476,37076,36514,35888,35149]
["CANTAL",7528,7357,7159,7011,6902,6735,6566,6447,6356,6216,6091]
["CHARENTE",20749,20544,20340,19914,19390,18927,18489,18164,17953,17648,17291]
["CHARENTE-MARITIME",41688,40966,40354,39213,38086,37242,36271,35683,35272,34454,33833]
["CHER",18161,18088,17853,17496,17221,17020,16684,16410,16231,15817,15487]
["CORREZE",13893,13566,13332,13050,12789,12581,12458,12350,12302,12098,11880]
["COTE D'OR",31595,31260,30890,30478,29938,29388,28769,28180,27808,27146,26416]
["COTES D'ARMOR",29650,29178,28634,27992,27424,26920,26296,25743,25306,24711,24245]
["CREUSE",6631,6478,6311,6174,6055,5909,5812,5703,5607,5488,5348]
["DORDOGNE",22671,22265,21925,21507,20975,20551,20165,19972,19694,19245,18833]
["DOUBS",36321,36055,35711,35111,34606,33948,33292,32798,32305,31969,31418]
["DROME",32884,32835,32568,32326,31904,31474,31119,30854,30704,30244,29624]
["EURE",43837,43243,42623,41594,40613,39568,38631,37771,36885,35862,34946]
["EURE-ET-LOIR",30485,30017,29547,28945,28397,27763,27062,26531,26119,25424,24818]
["FINISTERE",38373,37562,36723,35865,35051,34281,33621,33131,32832,32241,31538]
["CORSE-DU-SUD",9855,9760,9722,9637,9560,9417,9303,9204,9142,8945,8730]
["HAUTE-CORSE",11058,10925,10735,10675,10477,10321,10204,10128,10071,9882,9661]
["GARD",47103,46447,45866,45030,44156,43439,42631,42102,41633,40693,39764]
["HAUTE-GARONNE",99547,99631,99307,98618,97393,96040,94864,93744,92572,90795,89232]
["GERS",11154,11045,10808,10508,10248,9976,9781,9702,9641,9413,9222]
["GIRONDE",109310,108841,107703,106445,105017,103474,102005,101143,100112,98381,96515]
["HERAULT",81986,81762,81183,80413,79512,78558,77633,76992,76323,74770,73012]
["ILLE-ET-VILAINE",57192,56642,55912,55060,54142,53221,52437,51763,51160,50424,49749]
["INDRE",13120,12902,12669,12420,12149,11898,11668,11519,11329,11121,10889]
["INDRE-ET-LOIRE",39179,38684,38078,37310,36638,35869,35281,34888,34378,33777,33173]
["ISERE",90145,89190,88211,86599,84715,82965,81281,79757,78441,76487,74804]
["JURA",15784,15498,15283,15004,14721,14485,14190,13917,13695,13381,12987]
["LANDES",27057,26709,26166,25562,24951,24490,24018,23763,23681,23240,22801]
["LOIR-ET-CHER",20219,19794,19408,18993,18562,18152,17790,17523,17402,17120,16794]
["LOIRE",46508,46431,45973,45175,44477,43661,42832,41992,41246,40282,39502]
["HAUTE-LOIRE",9440,9287,9071,8913,8735,8533,8329,8186,7995,7821,7649]
["LOIRE-ATLANTIQUE",74380,73867,73277,72258,71100,70012,69006,68507,67877,66711,65454]
["LOIRET",52376,52149,51740,51384,50878,50233,49501,48760,48221,47293,46384]
["LOT",9546,9417,9338,9108,8964,8782,8645,8583,8472,8270,8090]
["LOT-ET-GARONNE",20295,19996,19630,19254,18871,18590,18232,17895,17690,17429,17049]
["LOZERE",3556,3457,3435,3336,3257,3204,3113,3092,3073,3034,2975]
["MAINE-ET-LOIRE",35864,35373,34787,34303,33535,32782,32067,31611,31208,30659,30070]
["MANCHE",26691,26374,25776,25146,24446,23881,23406,23099,22827,22371,22005]
["MARNE",36523,36268,35899,35102,34488,34019,33317,32857,32380,31544,30853]
["HAUTE-MARNE",10471,10351,10168,9970,9674,9369,9044,8807,8573,8423,8211]
["MAYENNE",14283,14102,13779,13405,13088,12700,12334,12087,11916,11723,11556]
["MEURTHE-ET-MOSELLE",48219,47571,46825,46071,45071,44054,43028,42067,41136,39853,38637]
["MEUSE",10951,10619,10340,10025,9689,9384,9074,8884,8662,8430,8153]
["MORBIHAN",29700,29384,28965,28395,27761,27168,26559,26149,25900,25484,25042]
["MOSELLE",69247,68923,68264,67478,66412,65298,63847,62508,61104,59384,57848]
["NIEVRE",11585,11424,11197,10921,10726,10463,10196,10019,9870,9680,9477]
["NORD",157220,155944,153616,150723,147386,144078,140425,137123,133776,130358,126967]
["OISE",61763,61659,61286,60663,59645,58763,57939,57135,56321,55089,53997]
["ORNE",14879,14696,14409,14030,13718,13360,13041,12751,12595,12428,12228]
["PAS-DE-CALAIS",103257,101809,99791,97475,94715,92145,89458,87178,85230,83142,81230]
["PUY-DE-DOME",39624,39329,38831,38199,37616,37044,36393,35895,35302,34426,33566]
["PYRENEES-ATLANTIQUES",36417,36052,35460,34700,34047,33383,32878,32454,32049,31500,31008]
["HAUTES-PYRENEES",13289,13097,12866,12660,12389,12111,11962,11755,11659,11544,11350]
["PYRENEES-ORIENTALES",32996,32673,32284,31844,31278,30632,30080,29745,29371,28959,28507]
["BAS-RHIN",78790,78473,78111,77240,76250,75510,74521,73449,72366,70809,69263]
["HAUT-RHIN",50207,50116,49614,49032,48218,47458,46625,45651,44677,43561,42430]
["RHONE",114353,114790,114494,113239,111650,109879,107800,105531,102921,99850,97275]
["HAUTE-SAONE",14709,14518,14240,13920,13551,13209,12822,12505,12190,11853,11564]
["SAONE-ET-LOIRE",34870,34424,33976,33421,32757,32066,31371,30859,30341,29681,28912]
["SARTHE",35070,34640,33979,33339,32570,31956,31246,30746,30389,29885,29313]
["SAVOIE",29571,29252,28861,28399,28039,27591,27111,26695,26288,25590,25049]
["HAUTE SAVOIE",52766,52970,52864,52520,52484,52193,51864,51664,51248,50480,49687]
["PARIS",95932,93890,91896,89645,87647,86107,84455,82684,80719,78174,75888]
["SEINE MARITIME",87428,87081,86222,85018,83698,82282,80586,79236,78156,76323,74674]
["SEINE-ET-MARNE",126761,127347,127166,126703,126115,125562,124927,124309,123611,122375,120913]
["YVELINES",115421,115366,114846,113788,112606,111611,110301,109263,108297,106850,105455]
["DEUX-SEVRES",21283,20744,20196,19622,19068,18496,17908,17495,17073,16635,16208]
["SOMME",35145,34754,34372,33711,32921,32119,31421,30783,30402,29788,29194]
["TARN",23473,23077,22661,22143,21580,21130,20640,20331,20145,19723,19203]
["TARN-ET-GARONNE",17668,17293,16866,16436,15972,15562,15178,15003,14860,14547,14212]
["VAR",71595,71513,71031,70421,69748,69152,68490,68100,67913,67111,66049]
["VAUCLUSE",40105,39594,38929,38229,37436,36725,36025,35396,34820,33946,33120]
["VENDEE",26056,25667,25063,24366,23693,23075,22517,22092,21740,21264,20722]
["VIENNE",26354,26129,25589,24928,24291,23715,23229,22799,22438,21910,21492]
["HAUTE-VIENNE",23608,23349,22856,22341,21795,21385,21017,20600,20380,20090,19712]
["VOSGES",22460,21934,21319,20781,20291,19903,19424,19050,18639,18118,17668]
["YONNE",21114,20832,20494,19997,19587,19202,18780,18357,18012,17556,17142]
["TERRITOIRE DE BELFORT",9862,9653,9379,9153,8978,8800,8604,8372,8193,7979,7764]
["ESSONNE",114697,115483,115721,115295,114969,114569,114162,113517,112707,111445,110063]
["HAUTS-DE-SEINE",96424,95776,95213,93918,92859,91567,90219,88710,87100,85177,83583]
["SEINE-SAINT-DENIS",136901,138093,139079,139327,139340,138978,137919,135778,133856,131481,128957]
["VAL-DE-MARNE",99630,100016,99863,99582,98966,98259,97301,95901,94359,92295,90317]
["VAL-D'OISE",114926,115883,116599,116694,116466,115970,114896,113989,112942,111030,108949]
["GUADELOUPE",34374,33418,32633,31532,30712,30294,30022,29633,29273,28775,28205]
["MARTINIQUE",24888,24079,23301,22562,21968,21574,21123,20788,20532,20253,19685]
["GUYANE",35737,35601,35640,36216,36818,37389,37885,38437,38596,38594,37793]
["LA REUNION",90025,89161,88382,87676,86758,85672,84716,83998,83198,82334,80798]
["MAYOTTE",49759,49920,50208,50682,51061,51495,51440,52410,53315,53670,52830]
["Secteur privé sous-contrat"]
["AIN",9490,9462,9359,9238,9082,8926,8784,8695,8617,8453,8288]
["AISNE",5996,5962,5910,5793,5669,5562,5432,5326,5248,5162,5039]
["ALLIER",2746,2702,2674,2615,2526,2481,2421,2388,2363,2314,2280]
["ALPES-DE-HTE-PROVENCE",699,631,578,553,530,511,489,480,475,467,462]
["HAUTES-ALPES",1042,1041,1037,1009,989,971,954,950,945,927,920]
["ALPES-MARITIMES",15035,15087,15128,15099,15056,14995,14861,14742,14600,14317,13983]
["ARDECHE",9325,9293,9167,9036,8873,8744,8580,8457,8322,8159,7989]
["ARDENNES",2750,2686,2622,2562,2477,2422,2375,2313,2266,2197,2143]
["ARIEGE",1302,1311,1284,1263,1231,1201,1180,1161,1145,1122,1093]
["AUBE",4770,4796,4789,4688,4596,4511,4426,4342,4274,4186,4083]
["AUDE",3153,3242,3301,3302,3305,3252,3215,3188,3141,3089,3012]
["AVEYRON",6867,6804,6712,6503,6338,6154,6017,5947,5847,5689,5541]
["BOUCHES-DU-RHONE",41303,41545,41680,41699,41653,41613,41381,41136,40880,40337,39705]
["CALVADOS",12610,12527,12199,11892,11677,11445,11260,11158,10985,10808,10607]
["CANTAL",1202,1192,1143,1111,1088,1073,1071,1066,1062,1045,1029]
["CHARENTE",3883,3802,3716,3622,3540,3457,3371,3308,3265,3208,3146]
["CHARENTE-MARITIME",4594,4545,4459,4390,4262,4214,4169,4157,4157,4081,4020]
["CHER",2399,2357,2334,2274,2204,2167,2109,2071,2052,1997,1957]
["CORREZE",2532,2439,2360,2289,2210,2155,2127,2091,2081,2045,2009]
["COTE D'OR",7836,7781,7713,7632,7532,7388,7224,7070,6960,6797,6617]
["COTES D'ARMOR",15270,14970,14568,14264,14001,13694,13336,13006,12752,12439,12185]
["CREUSE",0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
["DORDOGNE",3601,3486,3394,3311,3207,3132,3063,3031,2990,2921,2858]
["DOUBS",7285,7148,7018,6890,6771,6676,6588,6543,6486,6452,6352]
["DROME",10265,10073,9852,9717,9589,9490,9428,9385,9371,9240,9058]
["EURE",6185,6112,6023,5921,5829,5715,5605,5509,5394,5257,5124]
["EURE-ET-LOIR",5933,5876,5894,5851,5825,5790,5680,5599,5533,5395,5272]
["FINISTERE",30807,30441,29912,29346,28824,28220,27734,27303,27002,26511,25934]
["CORSE-DU-SUD",611,635,665,680,686,692,696,691,686,672,656]
["HAUTE-CORSE",723,715,724,717,730,731,707,690,677,659,642]
["GARD",13959,13929,13880,13734,13538,13409,13242,13135,13035,12767,12502]
["HAUTE-GARONNE",17318,17369,17382,17367,17295,17243,17161,17072,16955,16683,16432]
["GERS",1888,1799,1738,1682,1664,1621,1596,1593,1578,1540,1504]
["GIRONDE",24256,24284,24250,24050,23833,23570,23323,23188,22991,22626,22248]
["HERAULT",14480,14434,14292,14143,13954,13738,13546,13390,13263,12986,12661]
["ILLE-ET-VILAINE",38822,38639,38348,37694,37192,36746,36231,35923,35556,35008,34525]
["INDRE",1031,974,929,880,853,841,826,825,815,798,780]
["INDRE-ET-LOIRE",8839,8898,8952,8843,8801,8733,8660,8636,8541,8409,8274]
["ISERE",20283,20165,19933,19665,19304,18977,18656,18346,18072,17650,17278]
["JURA",3392,3308,3213,3098,3007,2946,2877,2828,2785,2725,2649]
["LANDES",3248,3200,3159,3064,3010,2952,2887,2857,2835,2783,2737]
["LOIR-ET-CHER",4073,4043,3990,3898,3795,3673,3570,3494,3447,3386,3317]
["LOIRE",17824,17626,17346,16987,16665,16390,16067,15782,15543,15170,14868]
["HAUTE-LOIRE",7339,7291,7182,7028,6917,6821,6713,6664,6545,6409,6285]
["LOIRE-ATLANTIQUE",49897,49758,49483,48961,48331,47700,47074,46760,46352,45574,44666]
["LOIRET",8617,8634,8595,8556,8467,8372,8276,8161,8084,7946,7802]
["LOT",1537,1417,1331,1249,1207,1158,1124,1106,1085,1056,1034]
["LOT-ET-GARONNE",3846,3823,3821,3785,3755,3710,3636,3566,3514,3452,3366]
["LOZERE",2340,2266,2176,2109,2053,2014,1960,1935,1919,1896,1868]
["MAINE-ET-LOIRE",32242,31756,31187,30648,29981,29283,28601,28168,27787,27290,26744]
["MANCHE",8495,8403,8319,8159,7956,7826,7677,7606,7553,7393,7267]
["MARNE",10145,10124,10079,9919,9763,9687,9532,9417,9303,9079,8890]
["HAUTE-MARNE",1609,1548,1476,1408,1344,1278,1211,1163,1121,1096,1065]
["MAYENNE",10082,9873,9644,9407,9245,9064,8878,8764,8688,8574,8474]
["MEURTHE-ET-MOSELLE",9039,9216,9351,9366,9291,9234,9128,8993,8846,8602,8364]
["MEUSE",1760,1732,1672,1631,1594,1551,1515,1489,1454,1422,1378]
["MORBIHAN",29714,29068,28297,27481,26580,25791,25063,24600,24348,23896,23427]
["MOSELLE",13901,14064,14042,13922,13815,13708,13484,13281,13043,12731,12446]
["NIEVRE",2051,2028,2017,2000,1958,1946,1930,1913,1909,1882,1849]
["NORD",75292,74888,74141,72746,71216,69852,68298,66870,65431,63861,62303]
["OISE",11428,11419,11313,11198,11023,10855,10669,10490,10333,10097,9881]
["ORNE",4215,4070,3965,3838,3720,3690,3662,3630,3640,3610,3556]
["PAS-DE-CALAIS",20763,20271,19795,19394,18776,18283,17805,17381,17037,16629,16254]
["PUY-DE-DOME",10006,10007,9899,9775,9679,9573,9424,9317,9174,8960,8740]
["PYRENEES-ATLANTIQUES",17390,17345,17163,16872,16626,16434,16293,16176,16055,15819,15583]
["HAUTES-PYRENEES",3367,3366,3323,3275,3224,3173,3146,3106,3091,3065,3010]
["PYRENEES-ORIENTALES",6647,6667,6617,6509,6425,6283,6171,6103,6009,5922,5829]
["BAS-RHIN",11394,11286,11142,11017,10926,10885,10827,10744,10636,10447,10262]
["HAUT-RHIN",11310,11421,11435,11377,11302,11170,11002,10791,10554,10287,10019]
["RHONE",53403,52909,52319,51426,50712,49906,48930,47988,46859,45516,44404]
["HAUTE-SAONE",1950,1859,1810,1739,1666,1635,1601,1577,1561,1519,1486]
["SAONE-ET-LOIRE",5351,5249,5117,4996,4879,4730,4594,4486,4391,4294,4183]
["SARTHE",10967,10808,10636,10388,10091,9901,9702,9571,9478,9322,9154]
["SAVOIE",5185,5170,5170,5086,5063,5014,4931,4887,4818,4698,4613]
["HAUTE SAVOIE",18536,18525,18507,18439,18445,18381,18279,18222,18102,17843,17568]
["PARIS",55413,55195,54792,54419,54014,53517,52779,51866,50681,49152,47682]
["SEINE MARITIME",20300,20247,20093,19947,19780,19549,19228,18928,18673,18269,17894]
["SEINE-ET-MARNE",17275,17426,17429,17430,17413,17356,17302,17223,17129,16979,16779]
["YVELINES",26276,26252,26208,26119,26052,26047,25911,25832,25735,25465,25183]
["DEUX-SEVRES",6317,6186,6188,6015,5875,5760,5573,5475,5369,5237,5111]
["SOMME",9983,9714,9522,9294,9072,8850,8644,8442,8314,8138,7974]
["TARN",6458,6471,6445,6392,6292,6166,6027,5912,5827,5699,5544]
["TARN-ET-GARONNE",3885,3854,3817,3779,3713,3672,3622,3611,3602,3535,3453]
["VAR",10781,10880,10869,10838,10797,10793,10753,10756,10783,10673,10513]
["VAUCLUSE",10544,10549,10480,10365,10283,10151,9996,9866,9729,9502,9279]
["VENDEE",28840,28421,27789,27039,26395,25670,24998,24509,24078,23555,22903]
["VIENNE",6795,6712,6553,6426,6284,6147,6036,5930,5843,5713,5605]
["HAUTE-VIENNE",2916,2900,2874,2823,2780,2720,2655,2590,2544,2493,2437]
["VOSGES",3542,3503,3450,3383,3336,3313,3269,3237,3196,3126,3064]
["YONNE",3219,3253,3246,3209,3172,3153,3120,3071,3030,2966,2902]
["TERRITOIRE DE BELFORT",2260,2208,2171,2138,2080,2047,2004,1942,1903,1850,1800]
["ESSONNE",16860,16913,16900,16872,16796,16694,16596,16505,16396,16186,15946]
["HAUTS-DE-SEINE",32658,32726,32710,32608,32568,32433,32127,31749,31263,30612,30063]
["SEINE-SAINT-DENIS",19490,19447,19405,19369,19325,19262,19135,18845,18605,18270,17913]
["VAL-DE-MARNE",17479,17574,17586,17594,17542,17529,17403,17197,16954,16607,16264]
["VAL-D'OISE",17996,17960,17953,17937,17889,17807,17608,17426,17259,16956,16616]
["GUADELOUPE",3981,3994,4064,4020,4040,4070,4086,4081,4036,3961,3835]
["MARTINIQUE",4242,4021,3827,3703,3631,3566,3502,3460,3410,3350,3233]
["GUYANE",2879,2840,2797,2835,2881,2914,2942,2963,2956,2945,2880]
["LA REUNION",8565,8660,8769,8746,8705,8695,8681,8685,8665,8619,8473]
["MAYOTTE",0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
["Lecture : selon le scénario intermédiaire, à la rentrée 2026, il y aurait 47 259 élèves scolarisés dans le département de l'Ain, dans le secteur public du second degré."]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : DEPP, constat de rentrée scolaire et système d'information scolarité 2025; Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 2.8 web","index":15,"n_rows":38,"n_cols":4,"rows_kept":38,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[35,0,35,4]]}
["Figure 2.8 web - Evolution annuelle 2025-2026 des effectifs d'élèves du second degré, par académie"]
[]
["ACADEMIE","Effectifs 2026","Évolution en %","Évolution en effectif"]
["PARIS",149085,-1.5,-2260]
["AIX-MARSEILLE",253076,-0.3,-713]
["BESANÇON",90247,-1.4,-1316]
["BORDEAUX",266001,-0.8,-2090]
["CLERMONT-FERRAND",97471,-1,-966]
["DIJON",116251,-1.2,-1370]
["GRENOBLE",283973,-0.6,-1619]
["LILLE",352912,-1,-3620]
["LYON",288477,-0.2,-552]
["MONTPELLIER",228365,-0.7,-1679]
["NANCY-METZ",177562,-0.9,-1557]
["POITIERS",129628,-1.5,-2035]
["RENNES",265884,-1.4,-3644]
["STRASBOURG",151296,-0.3,-405]
["TOULOUSE",237312,-0.7,-1736]
["NANTES",314265,-1.1000000000000001,-3416]
["ORLEANS-TOURS",202416,-1,-2016]
["REIMS",101679,-1.2,-1208]
["AMIENS",161137,-0.9,-1431]
["LIMOGES",48732,-1.7,-848]
["NICE",173282,0.2,281]
["CRETEIL",419903,0.6,2367]
["VERSAILLES",536359,0.2,1101]
["CORSE",22035,-1,-212]
["NORMANDIE",264442,-0.9,-2498]
["LA REUNION",97821,-0.8,-769]
["MARTINIQUE",28100,-3.5,-1030]
["GUADELOUPE",37412,-2.5,-943]
["GUYANE",38441,-0.5,-175]
["MAYOTTE",49920,0.3,161]
["France",5583479,-0.6,-36203]
[]
["Lecture : selon le scénario intermédiaire, en 2026, la diminution des effectifs de l'académie de Paris serait comprise entre - 2,1 et - 1,4 % par rapport à 2025 dans le second degré."]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : DEPP, constat de rentrée et système d'information Scolarité 2025; projections calculs DEPP en 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 2.9 web","index":16,"n_rows":110,"n_cols":4,"rows_kept":110,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[107,0,107,4],[108,0,108,4]]}
["Figure 2.9 web - Evolution annuelle 2025-2026 des effectifs d'élèves du second degré, par département"]
[]
[]
["DEPARTEMENT","Effectifs 2026","Évolution en %","Évolution en effectif"]
["AIN",56721,-0.4,-220]
["AISNE",43591,-1.5,-658]
["ALLIER",23008,-1.2,-290]
["ALPES-DE-HTE-PROVENCE",12588,-1,-128]
["HAUTES-ALPES",10472,-1.4,-146]
["ALPES-MARITIMES",90889,0.3,264]
["ARDECHE",25793,-0.6,-164]
["ARDENNES",18975,-2.5,-485]
["ARIEGE",10913,-1.1000000000000001,-118]
["AUBE",24413,-1.1000000000000001,-266]
["AUDE",26730,-0.9,-247]
["AVEYRON",18563,-1.7,-324]
["BOUCHES-DU-RHONE",179873,0,67]
["CALVADOS",54216,-1.3,-694]
["CANTAL",8549,-2.1,-181]
["CHARENTE",24346,-1.2,-286]
["CHARENTE-MARITIME",45511,-1.7,-771]
["CHER",20445,-0.6,-115]
["CORREZE",16005,-2.6,-420]
["COTE D'OR",39041,-1,-390]
["COTES D'ARMOR",44148,-1.7,-772]
["CREUSE",6478,-2.2999999999999998,-153]
["DORDOGNE",25751,-2,-521]
["DOUBS",43203,-0.9,-403]
["DROME",42908,-0.6,-241]
["EURE",49355,-1.3,-667]
["EURE-ET-LOIR",35893,-1.4,-525]
["FINISTERE",68003,-1.7,-1177]
["CORSE-DU-SUD",10395,-0.7,-71]
["HAUTE-CORSE",11640,-1.2,-141]
["GARD",60376,-1.1000000000000001,-686]
["HAUTE-GARONNE",117000,0.1,135]
["GERS",12844,-1.5,-198]
["GIRONDE",133125,-0.3,-441]
["HERAULT",96196,-0.3,-270]
["ILLE-ET-VILAINE",95281,-0.8,-733]
["INDRE",13876,-1.9,-275]
["INDRE-ET-LOIRE",47582,-0.9,-436]
["ISERE",109355,-1,-1073]
["JURA",18806,-1.9,-370]
["LANDES",29909,-1.3,-396]
["LOIR-ET-CHER",23837,-1.9,-455]
["LOIRE",64057,-0.4,-275]
["HAUTE-LOIRE",16578,-1.2,-201]
["LOIRE-ATLANTIQUE",123625,-0.5,-652]
["LOIRET",60783,-0.3,-210]
["LOT",10834,-2.2000000000000002,-249]
["LOT-ET-GARONNE",23819,-1.3,-322]
["LOZERE",5723,-2.9,-173]
["MAINE-ET-LOIRE",67129,-1.4,-977]
["MANCHE",34777,-1.2,-409]
["MARNE",46392,-0.6,-276]
["HAUTE-MARNE",11899,-1.5,-181]
["MAYENNE",23975,-1.6,-390]
["MEURTHE-ET-MOSELLE",56787,-0.8,-471]
["MEUSE",12351,-2.8,-360]
["MORBIHAN",58452,-1.6,-962]
["MOSELLE",82987,-0.2,-161]
["NIEVRE",13452,-1.3,-184]
["NORD",230832,-0.7,-1680]
["OISE",73078,-0.2,-113]
["ORNE",18766,-1.7,-328]
["PAS-DE-CALAIS",122080,-1.6,-1940]
["PUY-DE-DOME",49336,-0.6,-294]
["PYRENEES-ATLANTIQUES",53397,-0.8,-410]
["HAUTES-PYRENEES",16463,-1.2,-193]
["PYRENEES-ORIENTALES",39340,-0.8,-303]
["BAS-RHIN",89759,-0.5,-425]
["HAUT-RHIN",61537,0,20]
["RHONE",167699,0,-57]
["HAUTE-SAONE",16377,-1.7,-282]
["SAONE-ET-LOIRE",39673,-1.4,-548]
["SARTHE",45448,-1.3,-589]
["SAVOIE",34422,-1,-334]
["HAUTE SAVOIE",71495,0.3,193]
["PARIS",149085,-1.5,-2260]
["SEINE MARITIME",107328,-0.4,-400]
["SEINE-ET-MARNE",144773,0.5,737]
["YVELINES",141618,-0.1,-79]
["DEUX-SEVRES",26930,-2.4,-670]
["SOMME",44468,-1.5,-660]
["TARN",29548,-1.3,-383]
["TARN-ET-GARONNE",21147,-1.9,-406]
["VAR",82393,0,17]
["VAUCLUSE",50143,-1,-506]
["VENDEE",54088,-1.5,-808]
["VIENNE",32841,-0.9,-308]
["HAUTE-VIENNE",26249,-1,-275]
["VOSGES",25437,-2.2000000000000002,-565]
["YONNE",24085,-1,-248]
["TERRITOIRE DE BELFORT",11861,-2.2000000000000002,-261]
["ESSONNE",132396,0.6,839]
["HAUTS-DE-SEINE",128502,-0.4,-580]
["SEINE-SAINT-DENIS",157540,0.7,1149]
["VAL-DE-MARNE",117590,0.4,481]
["VAL-D'OISE",133843,0.7,921]
["GUADELOUPE",37412,-2.5,-943]
["MARTINIQUE",28100,-3.5,-1030]
["GUYANE",38441,-0.5,-175]
["LA REUNION",97821,-0.8,-769]
["MAYOTTE",49920,0.3,161]
["France",5583479,-0.6,-36203]
[]
["Lecture : selon le scénario intermédiaire, en 2026, la diminution des effectifs du département de Paris serait comprise entre - 2,1 et - 1,4 % par rapport à 2025 dans le second degré."]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : DEPP, constat de rentrée et système d'information Scolarité 2025, projections calculs DEPP en 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 2.10 web","index":17,"n_rows":38,"n_cols":4,"rows_kept":38,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[35,0,35,3],[36,0,36,3],[37,0,37,3]]}
["Figure 2.10 - Evolution  2025-2026 des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré  par académie"]
[]
["ACADEMIE","Effectifs 2026","Évolution en %","Évolution en effectif"]
["PARIS",131129,-3.5,-4776]
["AIX-MARSEILLE",273637,-1.8,-5132]
["BESANÇON",96991,-1.9,-1890]
["BORDEAUX",279773,-1.9,-5423]
["CLERMONT-FERRAND",103490,-2.4,-2543]
["DIJON",123620,-2.4,-3029]
["GRENOBLE",308503,-2.1,-6573]
["LILLE",374849,-2.8,-10873]
["LYON",313350,-2.6,-8472]
["MONTPELLIER",244070,-2,-5109]
["NANCY-METZ",182538,-3,-5557]
["POITIERS",134435,-2.2999999999999998,-3209]
["RENNES",283115,-1.9,-5597]
["STRASBOURG",160962,-2.2000000000000002,-3687]
["TOULOUSE",250601,-2.1,-5341]
["NANTES",340756,-2,-6984]
["ORLEANS-TOURS",219196,-2,-4397]
["REIMS",106747,-2.6,-2850]
["AMIENS",171471,-2.2000000000000002,-3881]
["LIMOGES",51105,-1.9,-966]
["NICE",188862,-1.7,-3216]
["CRETEIL",483552,-1.6,-7757]
["VERSAILLES",600135,-1.6,-9610]
["CORSE",23617,-1.4,-346]
["NORMANDIE",281837,-2.4,-6815]
["LA REUNION",110602,-1.2,-1335]
["MARTINIQUE",29294,-2,-587]
["GUADELOUPE",38884,-1.7,-670]
["GUYANE",50904,0.9,437]
["MAYOTTE",66048,1.3,814]
["France",6024072,-2,-125375]
[]
["Lecture : en 2026, la diminution des effectifs de l'académie de Paris serait comprise entre - 3,5 et - 2,5 % par rapport à 2025 dans premier degré."]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : constat de rentrée 2025; Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP en 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 2.11 web","index":18,"n_rows":110,"n_cols":4,"rows_kept":110,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[107,0,107,4],[109,0,109,3]]}
["Figure 2.11 web - Evolution  2025-2026 des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré, par département"]
[]
[]
["DEPARTEMENT","Effectifs 2026","Évolution en %","Évolution en effectif"]
["AIN",66471,-1.3,-896]
["AISNE",45367,-2.2000000000000002,-1007]
["ALLIER",23963,-2,-485]
["ALPES-DE-HTE-PROVENCE",13196,-1.6,-209]
["HAUTES-ALPES",10826,-2.4,-265]
["ALPES-MARITIMES",96930,-2.1,-2062]
["ARDECHE",26003,-3,-815]
["ARDENNES",20926,-2.9,-623]
["ARIEGE",10898,-2.5,-279]
["AUBE",25722,-2.6,-679]
["AUDE",28868,-2.7,-794]
["AVEYRON",19839,-2.5,-510]
["BOUCHES-DU-RHONE",197255,-1.6,-3230]
["CALVADOS",56062,-2,-1167]
["CANTAL",9008,-2.5,-229]
["CHARENTE",25965,-2.1,-546]
["CHARENTE-MARITIME",46655,-2,-947]
["CHER",22742,-2.2000000000000002,-521]
["CORREZE",16659,-1.4,-237]
["COTE D'OR",41847,-2.4,-1051]
["COTES D'ARMOR",47122,-2.4,-1159]
["CREUSE",7036,-2.4,-174]
["DORDOGNE",27675,-2.2000000000000002,-622]
["DOUBS",47796,-1.1000000000000001,-539]
["DROME",46072,-1.6,-732]
["EURE",54219,-2.8,-1565]
["EURE-ET-LOIR",39518,-2.4,-960]
["FINISTERE",71823,-2,-1494]
["CORSE-DU-SUD",11319,-1.5,-170]
["HAUTE-CORSE",12298,-1.4,-176]
["GARD",65578,-2.1,-1425]
["HAUTE-GARONNE",126475,-1.9,-2497]
["GERS",13210,-2.6,-348]
["GIRONDE",141020,-1.8,-2580]
["HERAULT",104065,-2,-2091]
["ILLE-ET-VILAINE",101795,-1.5,-1543]
["INDRE",14963,-2.1,-318]
["INDRE-ET-LOIRE",51829,-1.8,-967]
["ISERE",116169,-2.4,-2862]
["JURA",20068,-2,-412]
["LANDES",32277,-2.2000000000000002,-739]
["LOIR-ET-CHER",25775,-1.6,-431]
["LOIRE",68866,-2.6,-1826]
["HAUTE-LOIRE",18109,-2.5,-469]
["LOIRE-ATLANTIQUE",136414,-1.7,-2353]
["LOIRET",64369,-1.8,-1200]
["LOT",11247,-1.9,-219]
["LOT-ET-GARONNE",25795,-1.6,-424]
["LOZERE",5489,-1.7,-92]
["MAINE-ET-LOIRE",74124,-2.1,-1584]
["MANCHE",38503,-2.5,-968]
["MARNE",47812,-2.4,-1198]
["HAUTE-MARNE",12286,-2.8,-351]
["MAYENNE",26205,-1.9,-501]
["MEURTHE-ET-MOSELLE",57184,-3.1,-1840]
["MEUSE",13398,-3.2,-447]
["MORBIHAN",62375,-2.2000000000000002,-1401]
["MOSELLE",85659,-2.8,-2494]
["NIEVRE",13523,-1.9,-257]
["NORD",244481,-2.9,-7185]
["OISE",79744,-2.2999999999999998,-1864]
["ORNE",20738,-1.6,-346]
["PAS-DE-CALAIS",130367,-2.8,-3689]
["PUY-DE-DOME",52410,-2.5,-1360]
["PYRENEES-ATLANTIQUES",53005,-2,-1059]
["HAUTES-PYRENEES",16375,-1.3,-209]
["PYRENEES-ORIENTALES",40071,-1.7,-706]
["BAS-RHIN",96596,-1.8,-1784]
["HAUT-RHIN",64367,-2.9,-1902]
["RHONE",178013,-3.1,-5750]
["HAUTE-SAONE",17700,-3.2,-593]
["SAONE-ET-LOIRE",42084,-2.2999999999999998,-995]
["SARTHE",48664,-2,-999]
["SAVOIE",36244,-2.6,-972]
["HAUTE SAVOIE",84015,-1.4,-1192]
["PARIS",131129,-3.5,-4776]
["SEINE MARITIME",112315,-2.4,-2769]
["SEINE-ET-MARNE",159296,-1,-1587]
["YVELINES",152768,-1.3,-1984]
["DEUX-SEVRES",28468,-2.6,-753]
["SOMME",46360,-2.1,-1010]
["TARN",29866,-2.4,-741]
["TARN-ET-GARONNE",22691,-2.2999999999999998,-538]
["VAR",91932,-1.2,-1154]
["VAUCLUSE",52360,-2.7,-1428]
["VENDEE",55349,-2.7,-1547]
["VIENNE",33348,-2.8,-962]
["HAUTE-VIENNE",27410,-2,-555]
["VOSGES",26298,-2.9,-775]
["YONNE",26165,-2.7,-727]
["TERRITOIRE DE BELFORT",11427,-2.9,-346]
["ESSONNE",150306,-1.4,-2094]
["HAUTS-DE-SEINE",145593,-2.1,-3156]
["SEINE-SAINT-DENIS",187866,-1.7,-3275]
["VAL-DE-MARNE",136391,-2.1,-2894]
["VAL-D'OISE",151468,-1.5,-2376]
["GUADELOUPE",38884,-1.7,-670]
["MARTINIQUE",29294,-2,-587]
["GUYANE",50904,0.9,437]
["LA REUNION",110602,-1.2,-1335]
["MAYOTTE",66048,1.3,814]
["France",6024072,-2,-125375]
[]
["Lecture : en 2026, la diminution des effectifs du département de Paris serait comprise entre - 3,5 et - 2,5 % par rapport à 2025 dans le premier degré."]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : constat de rentrée 2025; Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP en 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 3.1 web","index":19,"n_rows":21,"n_cols":32,"rows_kept":21,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[18,0,18,31],[19,0,19,31],[1,14,2,14],[17,0,17,6],[1,0,2,0],[1,1,2,1],[1,2,2,2],[1,3,1,4],[1,5,2,5],[1,6,1,7],[20,0,20,31],[1,30,1,31],[1,23,2,23],[1,24,1,25],[1,26,2,26],[1,27,1,28],[1,29,2,29],[1,15,1,16],[1,17,2,17],[1,18,1,19],[1,20,2,20],[1,21,1,22],[1,8,2,8],[1,9,1,10],[1,11,2,11],[1,12,1,13]]}
["Figure 3.1 web - Projections des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré selon le scénario intermédiaire et évolution"]
[null,"Constat 2025","Projection 2026","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2025 et 2026",null,"Projection 2027","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2026 et 2027",null,"Projection 2028","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2027 et 2028",null,"Projection 2029","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2028 et 2029",null,"Projection 2030","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2029 et 2030",null,"Projection 2031","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2030 et 2031",null,"Projection 2032","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2031 et 2032",null,"Projection 2033","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2032 et 2033",null,"Projection 2034","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2033 et 2034",null,"Projection 2035","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2034 et 2035"]
[null,null,null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %"]
["2 ans",57134,55700,-1434,-2.5,54369,-1331,-2.4,54262,-107,-0.2,54152,-110,-0.2,54060,-92,-0.2,53991,-69,-0.1,53930,-61,-0.1,54240,310,0.6,54547,307,0.6,54845,298,0.5]
["3 ans",700480,653980,-46500,-6.6,637562,-16418,-2.5,622330,-15232,-2.4,621103,-1227,-0.2,619850,-1253,-0.2,618795,-1055,-0.2,618008,-787,-0.1,617302,-706,-0.1,620854,3552,0.6,624370,3516,0.6]
["4 ans",729284,713505,-15779,-2.2000000000000002,666140,-47365,-6.6,649417,-16723,-2.5,633902,-15515,-2.4,632652,-1250,-0.2,631376,-1276,-0.2,630301,-1075,-0.2,629500,-801,-0.1,628781,-719,-0.1,632398,3617,0.6]
["5 ans et plus",741805,748233,6428,0.9,732486,-15747,-2.1,684506,-47980,-6.6,666740,-17766,-2.6,650795,-15945,-2.4,649230,-1565,-0.2,647922,-1308,-0.2,646814,-1108,-0.2,645987,-827,-0.1,645247,-740,-0.1]
["Préélémentaire",2228703,2171418,-57285,-2.6,2090558,-80860,-3.7,2010515,-80043,-3.8,1975897,-34618,-1.7,1957357,-18540,-0.9,1953392,-3965,-0.2,1950161,-3231,-0.2,1947856,-2305,-0.1,1950168,2312,0.1,1956860,6692,0.3]
["CP",763834,745958,-17876,-2.2999999999999998,751831,5873,0.8,736542,-15289,-2,689074,-47468,-6.4,670488,-18586,-2.7,654434,-16054,-2.4,652521,-1913,-0.3,651207,-1314,-0.2,650089,-1118,-0.2,649251,-838,-0.1]
["CE1",759233,754052,-5181,-0.7,736404,-17648,-2.2999999999999998,742203,5799,0.8,727109,-15094,-2,680248,-46861,-6.4,661901,-18347,-2.7,646052,-15849,-2.4,644165,-1887,-0.3,642867,-1298,-0.2,641764,-1103,-0.2]
["CE2",768485,756656,-11829,-1.5,751487,-5169,-0.7,733898,-17589,-2.2999999999999998,739679,5781,0.8,724635,-15044,-2,677932,-46703,-6.4,659649,-18283,-2.7,643854,-15795,-2.4,641974,-1880,-0.3,640681,-1293,-0.2]
["CM1",776035,759991,-16044,-2.1,748330,-11661,-1.5,743210,-5120,-0.7,725814,-17396,-2.2999999999999998,731533,5719,0.8,716653,-14880,-2,670463,-46190,-6.4,652383,-18080,-2.7,636762,-15621,-2.4,634903,-1859,-0.3]
["CM2",794502,776940,-17562,-2.2000000000000002,760872,-16068,-2.1,749222,-11650,-1.5,744090,-5132,-0.7,726674,-17416,-2.2999999999999998,732399,5725,0.8,717502,-14897,-2,671255,-46247,-6.4,653155,-18100,-2.7,637516,-15639,-2.4]
["Elémentaire",3862089,3793597,-68492,-1.8,3748924,-44673,-1.2,3705075,-43849,-1.2,3625766,-79309,-2.1,3533577,-92189,-2.5,3443320,-90257,-2.6,3346187,-97133,-2.8,3262864,-83323,-2.5,3224847,-38017,-1.2,3204115,-20732,-0.6]
["ULIS",57052,57359,307,0.5,58638,1279,2.2000000000000002,58596,-42,-0.1,57972,-624,-1.1000000000000001,57112,-860,-1.5,56252,-860,-1.5,55246,-1006,-1.8,53871,-1375,-2.5,53243,-628,-1.2,52901,-342,-0.6]
["UEEA",1603,1699,96,6,1795,96,5.7,1891,96,5.3,1987,96,5.0999999999999996,2083,96,4.8,2179,96,4.5999999999999996,2275,96,4.4000000000000004,2371,96,4.2,2467,96,4,2563,96,3.9]
["Total premier degré",6149447,6024072,-125375,-2,5899914,-124158,-2.1,5776077,-123837,-2.1,5661622,-114455,-2,5550129,-111493,-2,5455142,-94987,-1.7,5353869,-101273,-1.9,5266962,-86907,-1.6,5230726,-36236,-0.7,5216439,-14287,-0.3]
[null,"TOTAL_1D",6149447,6024072.4468156304,-125374.55318437,-2,5899914.2922415398]
["Lecture : selon le scénario intermédiaire, à la rentrée 2026, il y aurait 6 024 100 élèves scolarisés dans le premier degré, soit une baisse de 125 400 élèves (- 2,0 %) par rapport à la rentrée 2025."]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : DEPP, constat de rentrée 2025, Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 3.1a web","index":20,"n_rows":21,"n_cols":32,"rows_kept":21,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[19,0,19,31],[20,0,20,31],[1,26,2,26],[1,27,1,28],[1,29,2,29],[1,30,1,31],[17,0,17,6],[18,0,18,31],[1,17,2,17],[1,18,1,19],[1,20,2,20],[1,21,1,22],[1,23,2,23],[1,24,1,25],[1,8,2,8],[1,9,1,10],[1,11,2,11],[1,12,1,13],[1,14,2,14],[1,15,1,16],[1,0,2,0],[1,1,2,1],[1,2,2,2],[1,3,1,4],[1,5,2,5],[1,6,1,7]]}
["Figure 3.1a web - Projections des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré dans le secteur public selon le scénario intermédiaire et évolution"]
[null,"Constat 2025","Projection 2026","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2025 et 2026",null,"Projection 2027","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2026 et 2027",null,"Projection 2028","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2027 et 2028",null,"Projection 2029","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2028 et 2029",null,"Projection 2030","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2029 et 2030",null,"Projection 2031","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2030 et 2031",null,"Projection 2032","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2031 et 2032",null,"Projection 2033","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2032 et 2033",null,"Projection 2034","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2033 et 2034",null,"Projection 2035","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2034 et 2035"]
[null,null,null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %"]
["2 ans",44394,43280,-1114,-2.5,42246,-1034,-2.4,42162,-84,-0.2,42077,-85,-0.2,42006,-71,-0.2,41952,-54,-0.1,41904,-48,-0.1,42145,241,0.6,42384,239,0.6,42615,231,0.5]
["3 ans",612464,571807,-40657,-6.6,557452,-14355,-2.5,544133,-13319,-2.4,543060,-1073,-0.2,541965,-1095,-0.2,541042,-923,-0.2,540355,-687,-0.1,539737,-618,-0.1,542843,3106,0.6,545917,3074,0.6]
["4 ans",636649,622874,-13775,-2.2000000000000002,581526,-41348,-6.6,566927,-14599,-2.5,553383,-13544,-2.4,552291,-1092,-0.2,551178,-1113,-0.2,550239,-939,-0.2,549540,-699,-0.1,548912,-628,-0.1,552070,3158,0.6]
["5 ans et plus",650104,655712,5608,0.9,641935,-13777,-2.1,599921,-42014,-6.5,584319,-15602,-2.6,570344,-13975,-2.4,568958,-1386,-0.2,567811,-1147,-0.2,566841,-970,-0.2,566116,-725,-0.1,565467,-649,-0.1]
["Préélémentaire",1943611,1893672,-49939,-2.6,1823159,-70513,-3.7,1753143,-70016,-3.8,1722839,-30304,-1.7,1706606,-16233,-0.9,1703130,-3476,-0.2,1700310,-2820,-0.2,1698263,-2047,-0.1,1700254,1991,0.1,1706069,5815,0.3]
["CP",660693,645250,-15443,-2.2999999999999998,650293,5043,0.8,637103,-13190,-2,596092,-41011,-6.4,579970,-16122,-2.7,566082,-13888,-2.4,564406,-1676,-0.3,563269,-1137,-0.2,562302,-967,-0.2,561577,-725,-0.1]
["CE1",654295,650048,-4247,-0.6,634853,-15195,-2.2999999999999998,639815,4962,0.8,626837,-12978,-2,586488,-40349,-6.4,570625,-15863,-2.7,556961,-13664,-2.4,555312,-1649,-0.3,554194,-1118,-0.2,553242,-952,-0.2]
["CE2",660907,649685,-11222,-1.7,645467,-4218,-0.6,630380,-15087,-2.2999999999999998,635307,4927,0.8,622420,-12887,-2,582355,-40065,-6.4,566605,-15750,-2.7,553037,-13568,-2.4,551399,-1638,-0.3,550289,-1110,-0.2]
["CM1",663786,650321,-13465,-2,639279,-11042,-1.7,635129,-4150,-0.6,620283,-14846,-2.2999999999999998,625131,4848,0.8,612451,-12680,-2,573028,-39423,-6.4,557529,-15499,-2.7,544179,-13350,-2.4,542568,-1611,-0.3]
["CM2",677310,662385,-14925,-2.2000000000000002,648948,-13437,-2,637929,-11019,-1.7,633788,-4141,-0.6,618973,-14815,-2.2999999999999998,623811,4838,0.8,611158,-12653,-2,571818,-39340,-6.4,556352,-15466,-2.7,543030,-13322,-2.4]
["Elémentaire",3316991,3257688,-59303,-1.8,3218840,-38848,-1.2,3180355,-38485,-1.2,3112307,-68048,-2.1,3032983,-79324,-2.5,2955325,-77658,-2.6,2872158,-83167,-2.8,2800965,-71193,-2.5,2768426,-32539,-1.2,2750705,-17721,-0.6]
["ULIS",53422,53709,287,0.5,54907,1198,2.2000000000000002,54868,-39,-0.1,54283,-585,-1.1000000000000001,53478,-805,-1.5,52673,-805,-1.5,51731,-942,-1.8,50443,-1288,-2.5,49855,-588,-1.2,49535,-320,-0.6]
["UEEA",1603,1699,96,6,1795,96,5.7,1891,96,5.3,1987,96,5.0999999999999996,2083,96,4.8,2179,96,4.5999999999999996,2275,96,4.4000000000000004,2371,96,4.2,2467,96,4,2563,96,3.9]
["Total premier degré",5315627,5206768,-108859,-2,5098701,-108067,-2.1,4990258,-108443,-2.1,4891417,-98841,-2,4795151,-96266,-2,4713307,-81844,-1.7,4626473,-86834,-1.8,4552043,-74430,-1.6,4521002,-31041,-0.7,4508872,-12130,-0.3]
[null,"TOTAL_1D",6149447,6024072.4468156304,-125374.55318437,-2,5899914.2922415398]
["Lecture : selon le scénario intermédiaire, à la rentrée 2026 et dans le secteur public, il y aurait 5 206 800 élèves scolarisés dans le premier degré, soit une baisse de 108 900 élèves (-2,0 %) par rapport à la rentrée 2025."]
["Champ : France, secteur public."]
["Source : DEPP, constat de rentrée 2025, Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 3.1b web","index":21,"n_rows":21,"n_cols":32,"rows_kept":21,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[19,0,19,31],[20,0,20,31],[1,26,2,26],[1,27,1,28],[1,29,2,29],[1,30,1,31],[17,0,17,6],[18,0,18,31],[1,17,2,17],[1,18,1,19],[1,20,2,20],[1,21,1,22],[1,23,2,23],[1,24,1,25],[1,8,2,8],[1,9,1,10],[1,11,2,11],[1,12,1,13],[1,14,2,14],[1,15,1,16],[1,0,2,0],[1,1,2,1],[1,2,2,2],[1,3,1,4],[1,5,2,5],[1,6,1,7]]}
["Figure 3.1b web - Projections des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré dans le secteur privé sous contrat selon le scénario intermédiaire et évolution"]
[null,"Constat 2025","Projection 2026","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2025 et 2026",null,"Projection 2027","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2026 et 2027",null,"Projection 2028","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2027 et 2028",null,"Projection 2029","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2028 et 2029",null,"Projection 2030","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2029 et 2030",null,"Projection 2031","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2030 et 2031",null,"Projection 2032","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2031 et 2032",null,"Projection 2033","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2032 et 2033",null,"Projection 2034","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2033 et 2034",null,"Projection 2035","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2034 et 2035"]
[null,null,null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %"]
["2 ans",12740,12420,-320,-2.5,12123,-297,-2.4,12100,-23,-0.2,12075,-25,-0.2,12055,-20,-0.2,12039,-16,-0.1,12025,-14,-0.1,12095,70,0.6,12163,68,0.6,12230,67,0.6]
["3 ans",88016,82173,-5843,-6.6,80110,-2063,-2.5,78196,-1914,-2.4,78042,-154,-0.2,77885,-157,-0.2,77752,-133,-0.2,77653,-99,-0.1,77565,-88,-0.1,78011,446,0.6,78453,442,0.6]
["4 ans",92635,90631,-2004,-2.2000000000000002,84614,-6017,-6.6,82490,-2124,-2.5,80519,-1971,-2.4,80361,-158,-0.2,80199,-162,-0.2,80062,-137,-0.2,79960,-102,-0.1,79869,-91,-0.1,80328,459,0.6]
["5 ans et plus",91701,92521,820,0.9,90551,-1970,-2.1,84586,-5965,-6.6,82421,-2165,-2.6,80451,-1970,-2.4,80272,-179,-0.2,80110,-162,-0.2,79973,-137,-0.2,79871,-102,-0.1,79780,-91,-0.1]
["Préélémentaire",285092,277745,-7347,-2.6,267399,-10346,-3.7,257372,-10027,-3.7,253058,-4314,-1.7,250751,-2307,-0.9,250262,-489,-0.2,249851,-411,-0.2,249593,-258,-0.1,249914,321,0.1,250791,877,0.4]
["CP",103141,100708,-2433,-2.4,101538,830,0.8,99439,-2099,-2.1,92982,-6457,-6.5,90518,-2464,-2.6,88352,-2166,-2.4,88115,-237,-0.3,87938,-177,-0.2,87787,-151,-0.2,87674,-113,-0.1]
["CE1",104938,104004,-934,-0.9,101551,-2453,-2.4,102388,837,0.8,100272,-2116,-2.1,93760,-6512,-6.5,91276,-2484,-2.6,89091,-2185,-2.4,88853,-238,-0.3,88674,-179,-0.2,88522,-152,-0.2]
["CE2",107578,106971,-607,-0.6,106020,-951,-0.9,103518,-2502,-2.4,104372,854,0.8,102215,-2157,-2.1,95577,-6638,-6.5,93044,-2533,-2.7,90818,-2226,-2.4,90574,-244,-0.3,90392,-182,-0.2]
["CM1",112249,109670,-2579,-2.2999999999999998,109051,-619,-0.6,108081,-970,-0.9,105531,-2550,-2.4,106401,870,0.8,104202,-2199,-2.1,97435,-6767,-6.5,94853,-2582,-2.6,92584,-2269,-2.4,92336,-248,-0.3]
["CM2",117192,114556,-2636,-2.2000000000000002,111924,-2632,-2.2999999999999998,111293,-631,-0.6,110302,-991,-0.9,107700,-2602,-2.4,108588,888,0.8,106344,-2244,-2.1,99438,-6906,-6.5,96803,-2635,-2.6,94486,-2317,-2.4]
["Elémentaire",545098,535909,-9189,-1.7,530083,-5826,-1.1000000000000001,524719,-5364,-1,513459,-11260,-2.1,500594,-12865,-2.5,487994,-12600,-2.5,474030,-13964,-2.9,461899,-12131,-2.6,456421,-5478,-1.2,453410,-3011,-0.7]
["ULIS",3630,3650,20,0.6,3731,81,2.2000000000000002,3728,-3,-0.1,3689,-39,-1,3634,-55,-1.5,3579,-55,-1.5,3515,-64,-1.8,3428,-87,-2.5,3388,-40,-1.2,3366,-22,-0.6]
["UEEA"]
["Total premier degré",833820,817304,-16516,-2,801213,-16091,-2,785820,-15393,-1.9,770205,-15615,-2,754978,-15227,-2,741835,-13143,-1.7,727396,-14439,-1.9,714919,-12477,-1.7,709723,-5196,-0.7,707566,-2157,-0.3]
[null,"TOTAL_1D",6149447,6024072.4468156304,-125374.55318437,-2,5899914.2922415398]
["Lecture : selon le scénario intermédiaire, à la rentrée 2026 et dans le secteur privé sous contrat, il y aurait 817 300 élèves scolarisés dans le premier degré, soit une baisse de 16 500 élèves (- 2,0 %) par rapport à la rentrée 2025."]
["Champ : France, secteur privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : DEPP, constat de rentrée 2025, Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 3.2 web","index":22,"n_rows":50,"n_cols":13,"rows_kept":50,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[1,3,1,12],[49,0,49,31],[3,0,16,0],[31,0,44,0],[17,0,30,0],[45,1,45,7]]}
["Figure 3.2 web - Projections des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré selon le scénario bas"]
[null,null,"Constat","Projections"]
[null,null,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035]
["Public","2 ans",44394,43280,42246,41615,40978,40347,39729,39110,39335,39558,39775]
[null,"3 ans",612464,571807,557452,544133,536009,527802,519685,511726,503750,506651,509524]
[null,"4 ans",636649,622874,581526,566927,553383,545120,536773,528518,520424,512312,515263]
[null,"5 ans et plus",650104,655712,641935,599921,584319,570344,561722,553125,544619,536278,527922]
[null,"Préélémentaire",1943611,1893672,1823159,1752596,1714689,1683614,1657909,1632479,1608128,1594799,1592483]
[null,"CP",660693,645250,650293,637103,596092,579970,566082,557402,548876,540436,532158]
[null,"CE1",654295,650048,634853,639815,626837,586488,570625,556961,548421,540032,531729]
[null,"CE2",660907,649685,645467,630380,635307,622420,582355,566605,553037,544556,536227]
[null,"CM1",663786,650321,639279,635129,620283,625131,612451,573028,557529,544179,535834]
[null,"CM2",677310,662385,648948,637929,633788,618973,623811,611158,571818,556352,543030]
[null,"Elémentaire",3316991,3257688,3218840,3180355,3112307,3032983,2955325,2865153,2779680,2725556,2678978]
[null,"ULIS",53422,53709,54907,54868,54283,53478,52673,51606,50062,49087,48247]
[null,"UEEA",1603,1699,1795,1891,1987,2083,2179,2275,2371,2467,2563]
[null,"Total premier degré",5315627,5206768,5098701,4989710,4883266,4772158,4668086,4551513,4440241,4371909,4322271]
["Privé sous contrat","2 ans",12740,12420,12123,11942,11760,11579,11401,11224,11288,11352,11414]
[null,"3 ans",88016,82173,80110,78196,77029,75849,74683,73539,72393,72810,73223]
[null,"4 ans",92635,90631,84614,82490,80519,79317,78103,76902,75724,74543,74973]
[null,"5 ans et plus",91701,92521,90551,84586,82421,80451,79241,78028,76828,75652,74473]
[null,"Préélémentaire",285092,277745,267399,257215,251729,247196,243428,239693,236233,234357,234083]
[null,"CP",103141,100708,101538,99439,92982,90518,88352,87007,85676,84358,83066]
[null,"CE1",104938,104004,101551,102388,100272,93760,91276,89091,87735,86393,85065]
[null,"CE2",107578,106971,106020,103518,104372,102215,95577,93044,90818,89436,88067]
[null,"CM1",112249,109670,109051,108081,105531,106401,104202,97435,94853,92584,91175]
[null,"CM2",117192,114556,111924,111293,110302,107700,108588,106344,99438,96803,94486]
[null,"Elémentaire",545098,535909,530083,524719,513459,500594,487994,472922,458520,449574,441859]
[null,"ULIS",3630,3650,3731,3728,3689,3634,3579,3507,3402,3335,3278]
[null,"UEEA",0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
[null,"Total premier degré",833820,817304,801213,785662,768876,751424,735002,716121,698155,687266,679220]
["Public + Privé sous contrat","2 ans",57134,55700,54369,53557,52737,51926,51131,50334,50624,50911,51189]
[null,"3 ans",700480,653980,637562,622330,613038,603651,594367,585265,576142,579460,582747]
[null,"4 ans",729284,713505,666140,649417,633902,624438,614876,605420,596148,586856,590235]
[null,"5 ans et plus",741805,748233,732486,684506,666740,650795,640963,631154,621448,611930,602395]
[null,"Préélémentaire",2228703,2171418,2090558,2009811,1966417,1930810,1901338,1872172,1844362,1829157,1826566]
[null,"CP",763834,745958,751831,736542,689074,670488,654434,644409,634552,624795,615225]
[null,"CE1",759233,754052,736404,742203,727109,680248,661901,646052,636156,626425,616793]
[null,"CE2",768485,756656,751487,733898,739679,724635,677932,659649,643854,633992,624294]
[null,"CM1",776035,759991,748330,743210,725814,731533,716653,670463,652383,636762,627009]
[null,"CM2",794502,776940,760872,749222,744090,726674,732399,717502,671255,653155,637516]
[null,"Elémentaire",3862089,3793597,3748924,3705075,3625766,3533577,3443320,3338075,3238200,3175129,3120837]
[null,"ULIS",57052,57359,58638,58596,57972,57112,56252,55112,53463,52422,51526]
[null,"UEEA",1603,1699,1795,1891,1987,2083,2179,2275,2371,2467,2563]
[null,"Total premier degré",6149447,6024072,5899914,5775373,5652142,5523582,5403088,5267634,5138396,5059175,5001491]
[]
["Note : Le scénario bas repose sur un jeu d'hypothèses démographiques différent de celui du scénario intermédiaire (cf. onglet Méthodologie)."]
["Lecture : selon le scénario bas, à la rentrée 2026, il y aurait 6 024 100 élèves scolarisés dans le premier degré."]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : DEPP, constat de rentrée 2025, Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]

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["Figure 3.3 web - Projections des effectifs d'élèves du premier degré selon le scénario haut"]
[null,null,"Constat","Projections"]
[null,null,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035]
["Public","2 ans",44394,43280,42246,42710,43177,43664,44175,44698,44955,45209,45456]
[null,"3 ans",612464,571807,557452,544133,550116,556136,562405,568981,575717,579029,582310]
[null,"4 ans",636649,622874,581526,566927,553383,559467,565589,571965,578653,585503,588871]
[null,"5 ans et plus",650104,655712,641935,599921,584319,570344,576200,582505,589068,595951,603004]
[null,"Préélémentaire",1943611,1893672,1823159,1753691,1730995,1729611,1748368,1768149,1788392,1805692,1819641]
[null,"CP",660693,645250,650293,637103,596092,579970,566082,571416,577670,584174,590994]
[null,"CE1",654295,650048,634853,639815,626837,586488,570625,556961,562209,568362,574761]
[null,"CE2",660907,649685,645467,630380,635307,622420,582355,566605,553037,558248,564357]
[null,"CM1",663786,650321,639279,635129,620283,625131,612451,573028,557529,544179,549306]
[null,"CM2",677310,662385,648948,637929,633788,618973,623811,611158,571818,556352,543030]
[null,"Elémentaire",3316991,3257688,3218840,3180355,3112307,3032983,2955325,2879167,2822262,2811314,2822447]
[null,"ULIS",53422,53709,54907,54868,54283,53478,52673,51857,50825,50624,50823]
[null,"UEEA",1603,1699,1795,1891,1987,2083,2179,2275,2371,2467,2563]
[null,"Total premier degré",5315627,5206768,5098701,4990805,4899573,4818155,4758545,4701448,4663850,4670097,4695474]
["Privé sous contrat","2 ans",12740,12420,12123,12257,12391,12531,12677,12827,12901,12974,13045]
[null,"3 ans",88016,82173,80110,78196,79056,79921,80822,81767,82735,83211,83683]
[null,"4 ans",92635,90631,84614,82490,80519,81405,82295,83223,84196,85193,85683]
[null,"5 ans et plus",91701,92521,90551,84586,82421,80451,81303,82193,83119,84091,85086]
[null,"Préélémentaire",285092,277745,267399,257529,254387,254307,257098,260011,262952,265469,267497]
[null,"CP",103141,100708,101538,99439,92982,90518,88352,89224,90200,91216,92282]
[null,"CE1",104938,104004,101551,102388,100272,93760,91276,89091,89971,90955,91980]
[null,"CE2",107578,106971,106020,103518,104372,102215,95577,93044,90818,91714,92718]
[null,"CM1",112249,109670,109051,108081,105531,106401,104202,97435,94853,92584,93497]
[null,"CM2",117192,114556,111924,111293,110302,107700,108588,106344,99438,96803,94486]
[null,"Elémentaire",545098,535909,530083,524719,513459,500594,487994,475138,465280,463272,464963]
[null,"ULIS",3630,3650,3731,3728,3689,3634,3579,3524,3454,3440,3453]
[null,"UEEA",0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
[null,"Total premier degré",833820,817304,801213,785977,771535,758535,748671,738672,731685,732181,735913]
["Public + Privé sous contrat","2 ans",57134,55700,54369,54967,55568,56195,56852,57525,57856,58183,58501]
[null,"3 ans",700480,653980,637562,622330,629173,636057,643228,650749,658452,662240,665992]
[null,"4 ans",729284,713505,666140,649417,633902,640872,647884,655188,662849,670696,674554]
[null,"5 ans et plus",741805,748233,732486,684506,666740,650795,657503,664698,672187,680041,688090]
[null,"Préélémentaire",2228703,2171418,2090558,2011220,1985383,1983918,2005466,2028159,2051344,2071161,2087138]
[null,"CP",763834,745958,751831,736542,689074,670488,654434,660640,667870,675390,683275]
[null,"CE1",759233,754052,736404,742203,727109,680248,661901,646052,652180,659317,666741]
[null,"CE2",768485,756656,751487,733898,739679,724635,677932,659649,643854,649962,657075]
[null,"CM1",776035,759991,748330,743210,725814,731533,716653,670463,652383,636762,642803]
[null,"CM2",794502,776940,760872,749222,744090,726674,732399,717502,671255,653155,637516]
[null,"Elémentaire",3862089,3793597,3748924,3705075,3625766,3533577,3443320,3354306,3287542,3274586,3287410]
[null,"ULIS",57052,57359,58638,58596,57972,57112,56252,55380,54278,54064,54276]
[null,"UEEA",1603,1699,1795,1891,1987,2083,2179,2275,2371,2467,2563]
[null,"Total premier degré",6149447,6024072,5899914,5776782,5671108,5576690,5507216,5440120,5395535,5402278,5431387]
[]
["Note : Le scénario haut repose sur un jeu d'hypothèses démographiques différent de celui du scénario intermédiaire (cf. onglet méthodologie)."]
["Lecture : selon le scénario haut, à la rentrée 2026, il y aurait 6 024 100 élèves scolarisés dans le premier degré."]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : DEPP, constat de rentrée 2025, Insee, estimations de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 4.1 web","index":24,"n_rows":34,"n_cols":32,"rows_kept":34,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[33,0,33,31],[1,14,2,14],[1,15,1,16],[1,0,2,0],[1,3,1,4],[1,6,1,7],[1,8,2,8],[1,5,2,5],[1,2,2,2],[1,1,2,1],[31,0,31,31],[32,0,32,31],[1,24,1,25],[1,26,2,26],[1,27,1,28],[1,29,2,29],[1,9,1,10],[1,11,2,11],[1,12,1,13],[1,30,1,31],[1,17,2,17],[1,18,1,19],[1,20,2,20],[1,21,1,22],[1,23,2,23]]}
["Figure 4.1 web - Projections des effectifs d'élèves du second degré entre 2026 et 2035 selon le scénario intermédiaire par niveau de formation "]
["Formations","Constat\n2025","Projection 2026","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2025 et 2026",null,"Projection\n 2027","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2026 et 2027",null,"Projection\n 2028","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2027 et 2028",null,"Projection\n 2029","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2028 et 2029",null,"Projection\n 2030","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2029 et 2030",null,"Projection\n 2031","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2030 et 2031",null,"Projection\n 2032","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2031 et 2032",null,"Projection\n 2033","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2032 et 2033",null,"Projection\n 2034","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2033 et 2034",null,"Projection\n 2035","Évolution projetée entre les rentrées 2034 et 2035"]
[null,null,2026,"effectifs","%",2027,"effectifs","%",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %",null,"Effectifs"," En %"]
["Sixième",802075,781254,-20821,-2.6,764209,-17045,-2.2000000000000002,748608,-15601,-2,737321,-11287,-1.5,732300,-5021,-0.7,715477,-16823,-2.2999999999999998,720893,5416,0.8,706572,-14321,-2,661917,-44655,-6.3,644197,-17720,-2.7]
["Cinquième",800185,796507,-3678,-0.5,776205,-20302,-2.5,759488,-16717,-2.2000000000000002,744189,-15299,-2,733099,-11090,-1.5,728143,-4956,-0.7,711712,-16431,-2.2999999999999998,716899,5187,0.7,702951,-13948,-1.9,659334,-43617,-6.2]
["Quatrième",804181,793105,-11076,-1.4,789492,-3613,-0.5,769701,-19791,-2.5,753326,-16375,-2.1,738346,-14980,-2,727456,-10890,-1.5,722571,-4885,-0.7,706548,-16023,-2.2000000000000002,711507,4959,0.7,697909,-13598,-1.9]
["Troisième",814333,811764,-2569,-0.3,800973,-10791,-1.3,797235,-3738,-0.5,777952,-19283,-2.4,761660,-16292,-2.1,746788,-14872,-2,735903,-10885,-1.5,730923,-4980,-0.7,715281,-15642,-2.1,719736,4455,0.6]
["Sixième et troisième ",3220774,3182630,-38144,-1.2,3130879,-51751,-1.6,3075032,-55847,-1.8,3012788,-62244,-2,2965405,-47383,-1.6,2917864,-47541,-1.6,2891079,-26785,-0.9,2860942,-30137,-1,2791656,-69286,-2.4,2721176,-70480,-2.5]
["ULIS en formations en collège",54739,55922,1183,2.2000000000000002,56360,438,0.8,56308,-52,-0.1,55973,-335,-0.6,55573,-400,-0.7,54982,-591,-1.1000000000000001,54573,-409,-0.7,54058,-515,-0.9,52953,-1105,-2,51725,-1228,-2.2999999999999998]
["Formations en collège hors Segpa",3275513,3238552,-36961,-1.1000000000000001,3187239,-51313,-1.6,3131340,-55900,-1.8,3068761,-62579,-2,3020978,-47783,-1.6,2972846,-48132,-1.6,2945652,-27194,-0.9,2915000,-30652,-1,2844609,-70391,-2.4,2772901,-71708,-2.5]
["Segpa",83781,83388,-393,-0.5,82458,-930,-1.1000000000000001,81569,-889,-1.1000000000000001,79930,-1639,-2,78660,-1270,-1.6,77463,-1197,-1.5,76694,-769,-1,75953,-741,-1,74361,-1592,-2.1,72580,-1781,-2.4]
["Collèges",3359294,3321940,-37354,-1.1000000000000001,3269697,-52243,-1.6,3212909,-56788,-1.7,3148691,-64218,-2,3099638,-49053,-1.6,3050309,-49329,-1.6,3022346,-27963,-0.9,2990953,-31393,-1,2918970,-71983,-2.4,2845481,-73489,-2.5]
["1re année CAP 2 ans",59001,58859,-142,-0.2,58862,3,0,58208,-654,-1.1000000000000001,58268,60,0.1,57254,-1014,-1.7,56349,-905,-1.6,55503,-846,-1.5,54840,-663,-1.2,54506,-334,-0.6,53615,-891,-1.6]
["2de année CAP 2 ans",48885,49680,795,1.6,49642,-38,-0.1,49646,4,0,49167,-479,-1,49168,1,0,48408,-760,-1.5,47682,-726,-1.5,46999,-683,-1.4,46456,-543,-1.2,46163,-293,-0.6]
["Seconde pro (1BPRO3)",184658,183896,-762,-0.4,182959,-937,-0.5,180598,-2361,-1.3,179734,-864,-0.5,175808,-3926,-2.2000000000000002,172367,-3441,-2,169219,-3148,-1.8,166800,-2419,-1.4,165668,-1132,-0.7,162469,-3199,-1.9]
["Première pro (2BPRO3)",183110,184718,1608,0.9,184160,-558,-0.3,183323,-837,-0.5,181177,-2146,-1.2,180260,-917,-0.5,176687,-3573,-2,173354,-3333,-1.9,170292,-3062,-1.8,167907,-2385,-1.4,166722,-1185,-0.7]
["Terminale pro (3BPRO3)",166445,170199,3754,2.2999999999999998,171770,1571,0.9,171364,-406,-0.2,170615,-749,-0.4,168705,-1910,-1.1000000000000001,167808,-897,-0.5,164636,-3172,-1.9,161570,-3066,-1.9,158748,-2822,-1.7,156533,-2215,-1.4]
["Autres formations professionnelles de niveaux 3 et 4 et brevet professionnel",10917,11140,223,2,11303,163,1.5,11371,68,0.6,11365,-6,0,11325,-40,-0.4,11259,-66,-0.6,11185,-74,-0.7,11047,-138,-1.2,10909,-138,-1.2,10781,-128,-1.2]
["ULIS en formations professionnelles",8312,8678,366,4.4000000000000004,8878,200,2.2999999999999998,8964,86,1,8986,22,0.2,8958,-28,-0.3,8895,-63,-0.7,8804,-91,-1,8717,-87,-1,8634,-83,-1,8523,-111,-1.3]
["Formations pro en lycée",661328,667170,5842,0.9,667574,404,0.1,663474,-4100,-0.6,659312,-4162,-0.6,651478,-7834,-1.2,641773,-9705,-1.5,630383,-11390,-1.8,620265,-10118,-1.6,612828,-7437,-1.2,604806,-8022,-1.3]
["Classe préparatoire et la classe de 2de",1023,0,-1023,-100,0,0,null,0,0,null,0,0,null,0,0,null,0,0,null,0,0,null,0,0,null,0,0,null,0,0]
["Seconde GT",558615,553166,-5449,-1,550991,-2175,-0.4,544222,-6769,-1.2,541654,-2568,-0.5,529220,-12434,-2.2999999999999998,518311,-10909,-2.1,508348,-9963,-1.9,501093,-7255,-1.4,497616,-3477,-0.7,487433,-10183,-2]
["Première générale",379118,382754,3636,1,379177,-3577,-0.9,377620,-1557,-0.4,373201,-4419,-1.2,371460,-1741,-0.5,363223,-8237,-2.2000000000000002,355868,-7355,-2,349145,-6723,-1.9,344264,-4881,-1.4,341878,-2386,-0.7]
["Première techno",142680,144027,1347,0.9,142786,-1241,-0.9,142257,-529,-0.4,140517,-1740,-1.2,139805,-712,-0.5,136744,-3061,-2.2000000000000002,133981,-2763,-2,131463,-2518,-1.9,129576,-1887,-1.4,128663,-913,-0.7]
["Premières GT",521798,526781,4983,1,521963,-4818,-0.9,519877,-2086,-0.4,513718,-6159,-1.2,511265,-2453,-0.5,499967,-11298,-2.2000000000000002,489849,-10118,-2,480608,-9241,-1.9,473840,-6768,-1.4,470541,-3299,-0.7]
["Terminale générale",374560,372149,-2411,-0.6,375552,3403,0.9,372220,-3332,-0.9,370672,-1548,-0.4,366431,-4241,-1.1000000000000001,364671,-1760,-0.5,356780,-7891,-2.2000000000000002,349604,-7176,-2,343046,-6558,-1.9,338258,-4788,-1.4]
["Terminale technologique",142847,142064,-783,-0.5,143314,1250,0.9,142185,-1129,-0.8,141640,-545,-0.4,139967,-1673,-1.2,139221,-746,-0.5,136282,-2939,-2.1,133543,-2739,-2,131046,-2497,-1.9,129157,-1889,-1.4]
["Terminales générales/technologiques",517407,514213,-3194,-0.6,518866,4653,0.9,514405,-4461,-0.9,512312,-2093,-0.4,506398,-5914,-1.2,503892,-2506,-0.5,493062,-10830,-2.1,483147,-9915,-2,474092,-9055,-1.9,467415,-6677,-1.4]
["ULIS en formations GT",217,219,2,0.9,220,1,0.5,220,0,0,219,-1,-0.5,218,-1,-0.5,214,-4,-1.8,212,-2,-0.9,210,-2,-0.9,207,-3,-1.4,203,-4,-1.9]
["Formations GT en lycée",1599060,1594379,-4681,-0.3,1592040,-2339,-0.1,1578725,-13315,-0.8,1567903,-10822,-0.7,1547100,-20803,-1.3,1522385,-24715,-1.6,1491471,-30914,-2,1465056,-26415,-1.8,1445755,-19301,-1.3,1425593,-20162,-1.4]
["Total second degré",5619682,5583489,-36193,-0.6,5529311,-54178,-1,5455108,-74203,-1.3,5375906,-79202,-1.5,5298216,-77690,-1.4,5214467,-83749,-1.6,5144199,-70268,-1.3,5076275,-67924,-1.3,4977553,-98722,-1.9,4875879,-101674,-2]
["Lecture : pour l'ensemble des effectifs du second degré, il y aurait 5 583 500 élèves en 2026, soit une baisse de 36 200 élèves (-0,6 %) par rapport au constat 2025."]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source : DEPP, constat de rentrée et système d’information Scolarité 2025; Insee, estimation de population; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]

{"sheet":"Figure 4.2 web","index":25,"n_rows":26,"n_cols":16,"rows_kept":26,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[1,6,1,15],[14,1,17,1],[1,1,2,1],[1,2,2,2],[3,1,7,1],[8,1,12,1],[13,1,13,2],[1,3,1,4],[23,0,23,15],[24,0,24,15],[25,0,25,15],[3,0,13,0],[14,0,22,0],[18,1,21,1],[22,1,22,2]]}
["Figure 4.2 web - Variation annuelle des effectifs selon le secteur et le niveau entre 2025 et 2035 "]
[null,"Secteur","Formations","Constats",null,"Variation constatée ","Variation annuelle projetée "]
[null,null,null,2024,2025,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035]
["Premier degré","Public","Préélémentaire",1977175,1943611,-33564,-49939,-70514,-70015,-30304,-16233,-3476,-2821,-2046,1991,5815]
[null,null,"Élémentaire",3380317,3316991,-63326,-59303,-38848,-38485,-68048,-79324,-77658,-83168,-71192,-32539,-17721]
[null,null,"ULIS",52935,53422,487,287,1198,-39,-584,-805,-806,-941,-1288,-588,-321]
[null,null,"UEEA",1222,1603,381,96,96,96,96,96,96,96,96,96,96]
[null,null,"Total",5411649,5315627,-96022,-108859,-108067,-108443,-98840,-96266,-81843,-86834,-74431,-31040,-12130]
[null,"Privé sous contrat","Préélémentaire",286024,285092,-932,-7347,-10346,-10027,-4314,-2307,-489,-411,-258,321,876]
[null,null,"Élémentaire",554277,545098,-9179,-9189,-5826,-5364,-11261,-12865,-12600,-13965,-12131,-5477,-3012]
[null,null,"ULIS",3624,3630,6,20,81,-3,-40,-55,-55,-64,-88,-40,-22]
[null,null,"UEEA",0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
[null,null,"Total",843925,833820,-10105,-16516,-16091,-15394,-15615,-15227,-13143,-14440,-12476,-5196,-2157]
[null,"Part du secteur public dans les effectifs d'élèves (en %) ",null,86.5,86.4,"-","-","-","-","-","-","-","-","-","-","-"]
["Second degré","Public","Total collège",2659254,2636789,-22465,-30709,-43382,-45013,-51235,-38752,-38931,-22379,-24423,-56176,-57421]
[null,null,"Total formations pro en lycée",529614,539700,10086,5415,966,-3370,-3529,-6627,-8076,-9382,-8319,-6071,-6606]
[null,null,"Total formations GT en lycée",1255376,1254794,-582,-3999,-853,-10609,-9014,-17369,-19787,-24345,-20981,-15306,-16017]
[null,null,"Total",4444244,4431283,-12961,-29293,-43269,-58992,-63778,-62748,-66794,-56107,-53722,-77553,-80044]
[null,"Privé sous contrat","Total collège",726957,722505,-4452,-6645,-8861,-11775,-12983,-10301,-10398,-5584,-6970,-15807,-16068]
[null,null,"Total formations pro en lycée",120111,121628,1517,427,-562,-730,-633,-1207,-1629,-2008,-1799,-1366,-1416]
[null,null,"Total formations GT en lycée",343135,344266,1131,-682,-1486,-2706,-1808,-3434,-4928,-6569,-5434,-3995,-4145]
[null,null,"Total",1190203,1188399,-1804,-6900,-10909,-15211,-15424,-14942,-16955,-14161,-14202,-21169,-21630]
[null,"Part du secteur public dans les effectifs d'élèves (en %) ",null,78.900000000000006,78.900000000000006,"-","-","-","-","-","-","-","-","-","-","-"]
["Lecture :  entre 2024 et 2025, dans le secteur public, les effectifs dans le premier degré ont baissé de 96 000 élèves et de 13 000 élèves dans le second degré. En 2025, la part du secteur public est de 86,4% dans le premier degré et de 78,9% dans le second degré. "]
["Champ : France, secteurs public et privé sous contrat (hors classes hors contrat)."]
["Source :  DEPP, constats de rentrée et système d'information Scolarité 2024 et 2025; Insee, estimations de population ; pyramides des âges redressées, calculs DEPP; projections calculs DEPP dès 2026."]